While the PGA is a relative neophyte compared to the likes of the DGA and WGA, it is has still forecast a handful of Best Picture victories, so keep an eye on them, but remember that they don’t always pick the winner, especially if it’s a fluky selection.
PRODUCERS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS
Being the Ricardos
CODA (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Don’t Look Up
The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
West Side Story (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Wesley Lovell: The Oscar race may begin or end here. Oscar voting has begun, but these awards are announced mid-voting, so a shock decision could change the course of the Oscar race or it may have no impact if votes are already tabulated. That said, The Power of the Dog managed to pull out wins at BAFTA and CCA and that’s a positive sign of the fim’s Oscar chances. But, if there’s an upset here, we may have to change our calculations, especially if that shock win is from CODA. Of course, popularity does sometimes rule here and with Dune the only wide-release film that made much in the way of money, it could play spoiler as well.
Peter J. Patrick: The PGA should go with the flow and give it to The Power of the Dog despite a last-minute push for CODA.
Tripp Burton: The PGA traditionally can go a little more mainstream — which might help West Side Story or even King Richard — but after a Nomadland win last year, The Power of the Dog very likely will win here.
Thomas LaTourette: It often seems that the Producers Guild goes with the most successful film, which would mean Dune, but I think they will look elsewhere this year. They might go with one of the feel-good movies like CODA or Belfast, but that seems unlikely. The splashy and colorful West Side Story might be a logical choice, but The Power of the Dog has been winning the most awards and I think the guild will jump on that bandwagon.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Raya and the Last Dragon
Wesley Lovell: Since most of these selections weren’t released broadly to theaters, the PGA doesn’t have much chance of recognizing the most popular, but they love trends and Encanto continues to trend while the others have largely been forgotten.
Peter J. Patrick: The popular Encanto should prevail here, with The Mitchells vs. the Machines a possible upset winner.
Tripp Burton: In all these categories I keep flipping a coin between The Mitchells and Encanto. I think The Mitchells might go over better with the producers.
Thomas LaTourette: Encanto will be the easy winner here. It has done well at the box office and the music is huge on Spotify. The guild will award if for all that.
The First Wave (RU:Tripp)
Flee (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
In The Same Breath
Simple As Water
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Writing With Fire
Wesley Lovell: Summer of Soul has managed to win in typically unfriendly territory, so it may well be on a roll that will carry it through here to the Oscars.
Peter J. Patrick: The popular Summer of Soul seems likely but a win for the immigration doc, Flee, would not be totally unexpected.
Tripp Burton: At this point, is there anything Summer of Soul can’t win?
Thomas LaTourette: Summer of Soul has been the most talked about documentary of the year and should win. Both Flee and The Rescue will get some votes, but will not best Summer.