For our eighteenth and final Rundown article, we look at the biggest category of them all. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.
- 1917 (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
- Ford v. Ferrari
- The Irishman
- Jojo Rabbit
- Little Women
- Marriage Story
- Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
- Parasite (WL F) [New] (PP F) [New] (TB O) (TL R)
(color and symbol key at bottom of page)
Wesley Lovell: The frontrunner for this award has changed several times. The Irishman was thought to be the de facto winner, but Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit have each had their times in the sun. 1917 ultimately peaked at the right time and enters the race as the odds-on favorite. The one film that could surprise is the one film that no one has ever had in the lead for Best Picture: Parasite. Although it is the most honored film of the year, the Academy has never honored a foreign feature as Best Picture, but that could change this year as there’s a broad rumbling of support for the film to come from behind and win.
Peter J. Patrick: I have no doubt that 1917 will get the most votes but with preferential balloting anything is possible so it could lose to either Parasite or Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.
Tripp Burton: 1917 seems like the solid front-runner here. I’m not predicting a foreign film to win Best Picture, but Parasite has come closer than anything in a long time.
Thomas La Tourrette: When 1917 won the Golden Globe, is seemed somewhat a surprise. I would have thought that The Irishman or Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood would win. 1917 had always sounded like a prestige film that would get lots of nominations, but it had been so little talked about to that point, that I did not expect it to win. That win started it down a road where it seems inevitable that it will win best picture. Producers and directors guild wins followed by the BAFTA have cemented its position as front runner. Several films will have to be content with their nominations and never really stood a chance of winning. Four did not have corresponding nominations for best director, which usually means they have little chance of winning here. Joker scored the most nominations, which is often the film that goes on to win best picture, but I just cannot imagine that happening with this divisive film. When Irishman opened, it had such rapturous reviews that it seemed a sure thing, but it has rapidly faded from the conversation. Once Upon a Time has held up better, probably since Hollywood likes pictures about itself, but it does not seem destined to win. That leaves Parasite as the one that might pull an unlikely upset. It won over three times the number of awards than 1917, including the coveted cast award from SAG, though 1917 was not nominated for that. It shows how loved Parasite was by the actors, the largest voting bloc of the Academy. But I am just not certain that the Academy is ready to proclaim a foreign language film as best picture. Only 11 have been nominated over the years, and only Roma probably came close to winning. If they released tallies, I imagine that Parasite would come in a close second. Since they don’t, we will never know. You can expect 1917 to win.
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series