For our fourteenth Rundown article, we go to the single vision at the heart of a motion picture. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directing as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the creation of something that was never there before.
- 1917 – Sam Mendes (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) (TL O)
- The Irishman – Martin Scorsese
- Joker – Todd Phillips
- Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino
- Parasite – Bong Joon Ho
- Parasite – Bong Joon Ho (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]
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Wesley Lovell: With Sam Mendes picking up both the DGA and BAFTA prizes, it seems a foregone conclusion that he will win here. The most technical achievement usually does even if there’s a split. In a rare sweep year, Picture and Directing often go hand in hand. His only competition is Bong Joon-ho.
Peter J. Patrick: Mendes has the wind at his back but Bong is well liked, so the outcome may be likely, but it is not certain.
Tripp Burton: When in doubt, predict the DGA winner always. If Mendes loses, though, it will be to director Bong, who seems the most popular in Hollywood right now.
Thomas La Tourrette: Originally it looked like Martin Scorsese was going to be crowned with a late career Oscar. The critics fell over themselves praising The Irishman, even with its 3 ½ hours in length. Then it started to fade rapidly. Rather than garnering the most Oscars, it now looks like it will go home empty-handed. Scorsese’s fall from grace seemed a boon for Quentin Tarantino who has yet to win a directing Oscar. However, that never seemed to catch on. Surprise nominee Todd Phillips for Joker never seemed a viable contender as the film is just too divisive. When Joker got the most nominations I wondered if it could pull a sweep, but that seems unlikely to happen. Then I wondered if Bong Joon Ho could pull off the unexpected and be the second director winning for a foreign language film. That had started to feel like a definite possibility, especially when the Screen Actors Guild gave their best cast award to Parasite. Then starting with the Golden Globes, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, and now BAFTA, the awards started piling up for 1917. Talk about a film peaking at the right time. It now seems inevitable that Sam Mendes will take home a second Oscar for his work on 1917, a WWI drama. Bong may have won over twice the number of awards as Mendes, but Mendes is winning the right awards at just the right time. Mendes will go on to win the Oscar.
Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists
Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series