The Rundown 2011: Picture

For our eighteenth and final Rundown article, we hit the pinnacle of the evening. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

  • The Artist (O) (O) (O)
  • The Descendants
  • Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Moneyball
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse

Runner-Up Predictions

  • Hugo (R) (R)
  • The Descendants (R)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Saving this category for last almost seems anti-climactic. After all, the chances of The Artist losing at this point are exceedingly low. Still, we have to give it our final attention since it is the most important award of the night. While there are eight other films that would like to unseat it, there are only three with any historical chance of doing it. Hugo, The Descendants and Moneyball. When you look at acting, writing, directing and editing, there are few films in history who have not received nominations in these categories who have also won Best Picture. Best Director and the writing awards are among the best predictors, but Best Editing has the longest stretch of victorious tendencies (1980 was the last time a film won Best Picture without also earning an editing nomination. Director, the most accurate, last failed in 1989). Hugo lacks an acting nomination and Moneyball has no directing nod, leaving The Descendants the only real major contender for an upset. Yet, I just can’t see it happening. If there is an upset and it will be the most shocking upset since Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash, the implications will be intense and potentially long-ranging.

Peter J. Patrick: The Artist is on a steamroller, but if there’s an upset, it’s likely to be in the much admired Hugo‘s favor.

Tripp Burton: The Artist has become the formidable front-runner in this category, and I can’t see much unseating it. Hugo has one more nomination, though, and if the love of Marty’s swan song is strong enough it could siphon off just enough votes to take this. I doubt that is happening, though.

KEY:

Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton
(New) = New Prediction
(O) = Original, Post-Nomination Prediction
(R) = Rundown Series Prediction

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