We had two films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Empire of Light

On paper, Sam Mendes’ newest film sounded like an Oscar contender. It was about battling depression and the healing power of cinema and it starred Oscar winner Olivia Colman. However, like many obviously Oscar-baity films, the end result was something a bit less than spectacular. The 55 score at MetaCritic along with the 47% rotten rating from Rotten Tomatoes may well tell you exactly what to expect. Poorly received is a bad thing for an Oscar contender. While some have managed to overcome bad reviews, they have done so with a decent box office backing and some glad-handing by less respected groups like the Golden Globes.

Does that mean the film is out of luck? With that much talent involved, maybe not. In spite of the weakness of the reviews, Olivia Colman has received plenty of praise for her performance. She’s a solid contender for an Oscar nomination, though the lead categories are fairly packed this year. There are other Oscar nominees and Oscar winners contributing to the film’s production including editor Lee Smith, cinematographer Roger Deakins, composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, and costume designer Alexandra Byrne. Byrne and Smith doesn’t seem likely contenders based on the film’s recency and poor reception respectively. Reznor and Ross both have other contenders this year, meaning they have better shots elsewhere. That leaves Deakins who is incredibly well respected and along with Colman is one of the few production elements receiving praise. Both are possible, but the film likely won’t go anywhere else.

The Whale

Speaking of prominent directors making a flop in this year’s Oscar race, let’s talk about Darren Aronofsky. In spite of past Oscar successes like Requiem for a Dream, The Wrestler, and Black Swan, his films have never been obvious Oscar bait. The Whale, which on the surface seems like a more conventional tale, had a lot of potential for momentum this season. Like Empire of Light, the film has failed to manifest strong reviews. The 68% fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes is notably better than Mendes’ film’s score as is the 61, but they aren’t that much better.

Like Empire of Light, the film might not be earning strong reviews, but the lead performance is. Brendan Fraser was a big name in Hollywood for a few years before fading into obscurity for the last several years. While his performance in Gods and Monsters was laudatory, he was considered more of a box office draw than a serious actor. In a comeback moment richly deserved, Fraser’s performance in The Whale is earning him career-best raves. There was even a point earlier in the year where he was the likeliest winner. Since then, Colin Farrell and other actors have emerged as major players and while Fraser is still a strong contender for a win, he’s by no means a slam dunk choice. As for the film, it’s unlikely the movie makes an appearance outside of Best Actor.