FINAL: February 25, 2018

Predictions are in the order I think they have a chance of winning the award. I have added notations to each indicating how strong I think each is as a contender.

LEGEND:
Winner Prediction (c-Win Pred Date Set) — Chance at Win —
Other Nominees — Chance at Win —

CHANCE AT WIN:
Guarantee: I wouldn’t bet on anything else.
Certain: Almost guaranteed, but there’s always a kernel of doubt.
Likely: The most likely winner, but a spoiler is waiting in the wings.
Toss Up: This race is too close to call for all those labelled toss ups.
Spoiler: This is a title that isn’t necessarily a sure thing, but is running close enough it could upset the predicted victor.
Doubtful: It’s not likely these titles will win, but there’s still a possibility.
Long Shot: There is very little likelihood that they’ll win.

Best Picture

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Fox Searchlight (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
• The Shape of Water – Fox Searchlight — Toss Up —
• Get Out – Universal Pictures — Spoiler —
• Lady Bird – A24 — Spoiler —
• Dunkirk – Warner Bros. — Spoiler —
• Call Me by Your Name – Sony Pictures Classics — Doubtful —
• Phantom Thread – Focus Features — Doubtful —
• Darkest Hour – Focus Features — Long Shot —
• The Post – 20th Century Fox — Long Shot —

Best Animated Feature

• Coco – Pixar (c-4/9) — Guarantee —
• Loving Vincent – Good Deed — Spoiler —
• Ferdinand – 20th Century Fox — Doubtful —
• The Breadwinner – Gkids — Doubtful —
• The Boss Baby – DreamWorks — Long Shot —

Best Directing

• The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro (c-1/16) — Certain —
• Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan — Spoiler —
• Get Out – Jordan Peele — Spoiler —
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig — Spoiler —
• Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson — Doubtful —

Best Actor

• Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (c-4/9) — Likely —
• Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name — Spoiler —
• Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread — Doubtful —
• Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out — Doubtful —
• Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq. — Long Shot —

Best Actress

• Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (c-1/16) — Likely —
• Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird — Spoiler —
• Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water — Spoiler —
• Margot Robbie – I, Tonya — Spoiler —
• Meryl Streep – The Post — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actor

• Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
• Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project — Toss Up —
• Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World — Spoiler —
• Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water — Long Shot —
• Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri — Long Shot —

Best Supporting Actress

• Allison Janney – I, Tonya (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
• Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird — Toss Up —
• Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread — Spoiler —
• Mary J. Blige – Mudbound — Long Shot —
• Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water — Long Shot —

Best Original Screenplay

• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
• Get Out – Jordan Peele — Toss Up —
• Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig — Spoiler —
• The Shape of Water – Guillermo Del Toro, Vanessa Taylor — Doubtful —
• The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjiani — Doubtful —

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory (c-4/9) — Likely —
• Mudbound – Virgil Williams, Dee Rees — Spoiler —
• Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin — Spoiler —
• The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber — Doubtful —
• Logan – Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green — Doubtful —

Best Original Song

• Remember Me – Coco (c-1/16) — Toss Up —
• This Is Me – The Greatest Showman — Toss Up —
• Mighty River – Mudbound — Toss Up —
• Stand Up For Something – Marshall — Spoiler —
• Mystery Of Love – Call Me by Your Name — Spoiler —

Best Original Score

• The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat (c-1/16) — Likely —
• Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood — Spoiler —
• Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer — Spoiler —
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell — Doubtful —
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams — Long Shot —

Best Editing

• Dunkirk – Lee Smith (c-4/9) — Likely —
• Baby Driver – Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss — Spoiler —
• The Shape of Water – Sidney Wolinsky — Spoiler —
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Jon Gregory — Spoiler —
• I, Tonya – Tatiana S. Riegel — Long Shot —

Best Cinematography

• Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins (c-9/7) — Toss Up —
• Mudbound – Rachel Morrison — Toss Up —
• The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen — Toss Up —
• Dunkirk – Hoyte Van Hoytema — Spoiler —
• Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel — Doubtful —

Best Production Design

• The Shape of Water – Paul Denham Austerberry; Shane Vieau, Jeff Melvin (c-1/16) — Likely —
• Blade Runner 2049 – Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola — Spoiler —
• Beauty and the Beast – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Spoiler —
• Darkest Hour – Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer — Spoiler —
• Dunkirk – Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis — Doubtful —

Best Costume Design

• Beauty and the Beast – Jacqueline Durran (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
• Phantom Thread – Mark Bridges — Toss Up —
• The Shape of Water – Luis Sequeira — Toss Up —
• Victoria & Abdul – Consolata Boyle — Doubtful —
• Darkest Hour – Jacqueline Durran — Doubtful —

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Darkest Hour (c-8/1) — Likely —
• Wonder — Spoiler —
• Victoria & Abdul — Spoiler —

Best Sound Mixing

• Dunkirk (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
• Blade Runner 2049 — Toss Up —
• Baby Driver — Spoiler —
• The Shape of Water — Toss Up —
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —

Best Sound Editing

• Dunkirk (c-4/9) — Toss Up —
• Blade Runner 2049 — Toss Up —
• Baby Driver — Spoiler —
• The Shape of Water — Toss Up —
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —

Best Visual Effects

• Blade Runner 2049 (c-10/2) — Likely —
• War for the Planet of the Apes — Spoiler —
• Star Wars: The Last Jedi — Doubtful —
• Kong: Skull Island — Doubtful —
• Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 — Doubtful —

Best Foreign Language Film

• A Fantastic Woman – Chile, directed by: Sebastián Lelio (c-12/15) — Toss Up —
• On Body and Soul – Hungary, directed by: Ildikó Enyedi — Toss Up —
• Loveless – Russia, directed by: Andrey Zvyagintsev — Toss Up —
• The Square – Sweden, directed by: Ruben Östlund — Toss Up —
• The Insult – Lebanon, directed by: Ziad Doueiri — Spoiler —

Best Documentary Feature

• Faces Places (c-12/4) — Toss Up —
• Strong Island — Toss Up —
• Last Men in Aleppo — Toss Up —
• Abacus: Small Enough to Jail — Toss Up —
• Icarus — Toss Up —

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Heroin(e) (c-1/23) — Toss Up —
• Traffic Stop — Toss Up —
• Edith+Eddie — Toss Up —
• Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 — Toss Up —
• Knife Skills — Toss Up —

Best Animated Short Film

• Garden Party (c-2/25) — Toss Up —
• Lou — Toss Up —
• Dear Basketball — Toss Up —
• Revolting Rhymes — Toss Up —
• Negative Space — Toss Up —

Best Live Action Short Film

• DeKalb Elementary (c-12/24) — Toss Up —
• The Silent Child — Toss Up —
• Watu Wote / All of Us — Toss Up —
• My Nephew Emmett — Toss Up —
• The Eleven O’Clock — Toss Up —