As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

It’s a quiet week with only the Oscar nominations as a major event.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 11 (Tue.-Mon.)

Tuesday, Feb. 8 – Razzies (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Feb. 8 – Academy Awards Nominations (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 12 – Goya Awards (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

Dune had something of a great week. It dominated the BAFTA nominations even though it didn’t pull in a director citation for Denis Villeneuve. It was also the top nominee at the OFTA where it did get that nomination. That is enough to tell is it should have a big day come Tuesday.
The Power of the Dog also did well, pulling in quite a few nominations from both organizations, clearing citations in several categories, though missing at BAFTA for Kirsten Dunst and at OFTA for Jesse Plemons. It also did well with the London Film Critics Circle. It should do quite well on Tuesday as well.
Licorice Pizza got most of the citations it needed from both organizations, though it did significantly better at BAFTA than at OFTA where it missed out in Director to Paul Thomas Anderson’s detriment. That shouldn’t affect its chances, the film should be able to ride its respectable wave to a solid showing Tuesday with perhaps even a few surprises along the way.

Big Losers

Spencer couldn’t have had a worse week. While it did quite well at OFTA, BAFTA thumbed its nose at the film, shutting it out of nearly every category. Perhaps that’s a result of the British being too close to the royal family to be objective, but that could be enough to predict its doom at the Oscars.
The Tragedy of Macbeth also had a terrible day. Not only did Denzel Washington fail to earn yet another nomination from BAFTA (he has never been nominated there), the film was shut out of nearly every category with Cinematography the only thing to show for it. The film did slightly better at OFTA, but not enough to make a dent in the clearly weak position it has found itself in all season.
West Side Story didn’t do nearly as well as expected. While the film did score a handful of nominations at BAFTA and earned the second-most citations at OFTA, it severely underperformed at BAFTA. Perhaps that’s a result of its clearly Amero-centric viewpoint (a narrowminded one at that), but it certainly suggests the film is struggling more than we expected.
BAFTA wet the bed last year with its new committee-selected nominees. They tried to redefine that this year by giving the top two finishers a place at the table, but they then relegated the final four slots to committees (and not the same committees for each category) resulting in a hodge podge of results that weren’t terribly representative of this year’s Oscar landscape. That’s fine for BAFTA, but not so great for Oscar.