Now that the Oscar nominations have been revealed, we can discuss what was nominated, what wasn’t and what it all means. Based on my initial predictions, I’m going to go through each category and give you what I predicted correctly, what I didn’t and how I feel about it. I’m only covering 21 of the 24 categories because all three short film categories are largely a mystery to me having seen only one of the 15 nominations.

Overall, I did slightly worse than last year, but ended up with three perfect category predictions compared to zero last year. Comparing the twenty years I’ve been prediction nominations (since 1996), this is my seventh best performance. My top is still 2004.

Best Picture

Predictions: 7 out of 8 (8 out of 10)
The In: None
The Out: Carol, Inside Out

Commentary: There was always a presumption that Pixar, when it was at the absolute top of its game, would secure a Best Picture nomination. This year proved that not to be the case and when the Best Original Score nominations were announced, this became the only possibility. As for Carol, the American guilds proved they didn’t care much for the film even though the British Academy did. The Art Directors Guild omission was the first. Not only was it repeated here, but so was the Directors Guild of America omission. Therefore, Contrary to BAFTA’s assertion that it was a solid contender, the Academy disagreed and gave it only six total nominations.

While all eight Best Picture nominees appeared on my list of ten films, I had put Room at the nadir when it, and Carol should have had their positions swapped. If it weren’t for the ADG and the DGA, these nominations would have the shock of Carol‘s omission. As things stand, I’m not surprised, I’m just disappointed.

Best Animated Feature

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: Boy and the World, When Marnie Was There
The Out: The Good Dinosaur, The Peanuts Movie

Commentary: I’ve been preaching the GKids paradigm for years and, once again, I failed to take it into account for no other reason than I couldn’t figure out which films to dump. Anomalisa was too strong, The Good Dinosaur was Pixar and The Peanuts Movie had strong support from critics. All three of these films appeared on nearly every Best Animated Feature slate this precursor season. Yet, like last year, GKids managed to secure two Oscar nominations. Unlike last year, neither of those nominated were expected to show up. However, like last year as well, they managed to secure nominations over two expected nominees, neither of which were surprising to see omitted, but nevertheless were expected to be stronger contenders than Anomalisa.

Best Director

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Lenny Abrahamson – Room
The Out: Ridley Scott – The Martian

Commentary: After the DGA nominations, it was a foregone conclusion that Todd Haynes would be omitted. However, I didn’t take into account, as a I should have, that the Academy would choose a neophyte director to honor with a nomination. Last year, it was Morten Tyldum. Three years ago, it was Benh Zeitlin. Given these two examples, Zeitlin being the better one, it should have been more obvious that Lenny Abrahamson would get in. What kept him away was his film’s seeming lack of support in recent weeks. That he got nominated isn’t surprising. That he got in over Ridley Scott rather than Tom McCarthy is one of the biggest surprises of the day. Scott had been talked up for a long time as not only a likely nominee, but also a potential winner. Now he’s a footnote.

Best Actor

Predictions: 5 out of 5 (PERFECT SCORE)
The In: None
The Out: None

Commentary: While I had toyed many times with replacing Bryan Cranston with Will Smith or Steve Carell, I ultimately felt that Cranston had been nominated far too many times to be discounted and the BAFTA mention sealed the deal.

Best Actress

Predictions: 5 out of 5 (PERFECT SCORE)
The In: None
The Out: None

Commentary: Once I got it out of my head that Rooney Mara could get a double nomination here, it was easy to pick out the eventual five nominees. I confess that I thought about duplicating the BAFTA slate of Alicia Vikander nominated twice, but ultimately I stuck with her getting left out for Danish Girl due to category confusion and went with the incredibly popular Jennifer Lawrence for the fifth slot.

Best Supporting Actor

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Tom Hardy – The Revenant
The Out: Benicio Del Toro – Sicario

Commentary: I swapped in Benicio Del Toro in the last week because I thought his film was performing better than expected. It did, but only marginally so. While I thought Michael Shannon, Idris Elba or Jacob Tremblay could have been the benefactor, the revolving door of possibilities just kept closing and I went with Del Toro, a prior nominee. I had thought about Tom Hardy being carried in by the strength of his film’s Best Picture chances, but had I known the film was going to score in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design against most odds, I would have been more trusting of his chances here.

Best Supporting Actress

Predictions: 3 out of 5 (sort of)
The In: Rachel McAdams – Spotlight; Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
The Out: Helen Mirren – Trumbo; Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina

Commentary: Alicia Vikander made it in, just not for the role I thought she’d get it for. The Danish Girl is more an Academy-friendly film (period-set biopic) than Ex Machina (sci-fi), so it should have been a given that she’d get in for that other film. That it’s a leading role probably helped. I kept subbing in Rachel McAdams for others, but never could figure out who to drop, so I left her off the list. Mirren’s support early in the season led me to keep her in even if I wasn’t entirely sure of her chances.

Best Original Screenplay

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Straight Outta Compton
The Out: Sicario

Commentary: After its surprise nomination from the Writers Guild of America, Straight Outta Compton‘s chances increased dramatically. While this nomination could have meant Best Picture support, that wasn’t to be. However, the fact that Sicario was barely hanging onto my list’s fifth slot, I can’t say I’m shocked at the outcome.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Brooklyn
The Out: Steve Jobs

Commentary: For the longest time, I had left Steve Jobs off my list. I thought the film didn’t have enough box office or precursor support to merit a nomination, but kept thinking that Sorkin would manage to eke out a win. I felt the opposite about Brooklyn. I thought that film was far too subtle for the Academy’s writers to want to recognize. For a short time, I had Brooklyn on my list and not Steve Jobs. It looks like I should have left it that way.

Best Original Song

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey; “Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
The Out: “See You Again” – Furious 7; “Feels Like Summer” – Shaun the Sheep Movie

Commentary: Expecting a Fifty Shades of Grey song was something we all did. However, I doubt any of us thought it would be this song over “Love Me Like You Do.” The big surprise was the exclusion of “See You Again” from Furious 7 and the inclusion of “Manta Ray” from the little talked about documentary Racing Extinction. I never thought “Feels Like Summer was a solid contender, so that’s not a surprising miss. However, “Manta Ray” just didn’t seem like a real possibility. That’s why I removed it from my shortlist of contenders for the nomination. Since the category’s eligible songs were announced late last year, it was one of roughly three dozen songs I had singled out as possible nominees. In the last week, I decided to trim some of those categories down and in that trimming, “Manta Ray” was pushed into the other section. This was definitely a mistake and will only encourage me to keep all songs from documentaries listed even if I don’t think they have a chance.

Best Original Score

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Bridge of Spies
The Out: Inside Out

Commentary: Michael Giacchino has been a consistent presence in the Best Original Score category for years. Many of his Pixar scores have been nominated. This year didn’t seem like an exception going in, so I put it in there anyway. While I didn’t discount Thomas Newman’s work for Bridge of Spies, I would have expected it to secure the nod over Sicario rather than Inside Out.

Best Film Editing

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: Spotlight; Star Wars: The Force Awakens
The Out: Bridge of Spies; The Martian

Commentary: High profile nominations for the likes of The Matrix should have given me enough information to believe Star Wars: The Force Awakens could be a nominee. It did as I had the film in the borderline category. It was Spotlight, however, that proved the be the more surprising inclusion. Bridge of Spies was doing so well with BAFTA and the guilds that I thought for sure it would make the cut. Michael Kahn is an editing legend without an Oscar. Pietro Scalia is another prior Oscar nominee that I thought would be included for The Martian, but the Academy’s editing branch decided that it wanted most of its major Best Picture contenders represented and, other than Star Wars, they did that with four of the eight cited here. This puts those four into a good position for a Best Picture win since only once in three decades has a film won Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination.

Best Cinematography

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: The Hateful Eight
The Out: Bridge of Spies

Commentary: Caution was urged this past week in following the American Society of Cinematographers explicitly for nominations in this category. However, what film would have been the wisest to reject and which would be the most likely to include. The Hateful Eight was definitely at the top of the list of possible inclusions, but many thought Sicario was the weak link and not Bridge of Spies. Of course, no one can hold a candle to Roger Deakins. Apparently not even prior winner Janusz Kaminski.

Best Production Design

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: The Martian; The Revenant
The Out: Carol; Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Commentary: The Art Directors Guild should have been a better forecaster in my mind than I allowed it to be. Carol was omitted, but I thought surely the Academy would nominate it anyway. That wasn’t to be the case. The opposite was true in my mind for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which I swapped into the race at the expense of Crimson Peak. Neither of these would come to pass. The Martian doesn’t shock me, but The Revenant wasn’t on anyone’s radar except in its capacity as both a Best Picture contender and a period drama. However, with the extensive exterior locales, it was thought to be an also-ran. It wasn’t.

Best Costume Design

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: Mad Max: Fury Road; The Revenant
The Out: Brooklyn; Crimson Peak

Commentary: What’s more surprising? Two Best Picture contenders entering into the Best Costume Design race over a different Best Picture nominee and a lush period horror drama? If those films were Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. We were, but that’s largely because those two films while featuring interesting costumes don’t fall into the typically period-favorable eras that the costume designers reward. I admit Brooklyn was always a weak contender, but Crimson Peak always seemed like such an obvious choice. Perhaps it was too obvious.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Predictions: 2 out of 3
The In: The 100-Year-Old Man…
The Out: Black Mass

Commentary: As I expected, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant were certain nominees. That third spot gave me trouble, but I went with Black Mass because of its modestly obvious effects. That said, in the back of my mind, I always thought 100-Year-Old Man would be one of those quirky nominees this branch loves to cite. It turns out I should have gone with my gut.

Best Sound Mixing

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Bridge of Spies
The Out: The Hateful Eight

Commentary: There’s not a lot to say about this category. The Hateful Eight was always the weakest competitor here. I thought maybe Sicario would come out on top, but Bridge of Spies wasn’t surprising.

Best Sound Editing

Predictions: 5 out of 5 (PERFECT SCORE)
The In: None
The Out: None

Commentary: What can I say? Going for the film with heavy amounts of gunfire is generally a smart move when none of the rest seem that plausible. And this without having the Motion Picture Sound Editors nominations as a guide.

Best Visual Effects

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: Ex Machina
The Out: The Walk

Commentary: I had both Jurassic World and Ex Machina on my list before my last pass. I had skipped The Revenant and The Walk. However, after the Visual Effects Society nominated and gave nothing to Ex Machina and two throwaway nods to Jurassic World, I removed both. I’m glad I went with The Revenant, but The Walk seems a bit hasty in hindsight.

Best Foreign Language Film

Predictions: 2 out of 5
The In: Embrace of the Serpent; Theeb; A War
The Out: The Brand New Testament; Labyrinth of Lies; Viva

Commentary: I’ve never been good at predicting these, but for the Academy to skip a post-Holocaust drama like Labyrinth of Lies is a bit of a shock. I had Theeb on my list for a long time, but dropped it in favor of The Brand New Testament. That was clearly a mistake.

Best Documentary Feature

Predictions: 4 out of 5
The In: What Happened, Miss Simone?
The Out: Where to Invade Next

Commentary: There was plenty of evidence to suggest that Michael Moore’s latest documentary wasn’t a contender, but I ignored them. I wouldn’t have put What Happened, Miss Simone? in there because I thought the Academy would never nominated two music documentaries. Wrong again. This isn’t my best category, but I didn’t do nearly as bad as I usually do.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Predictions: 2 out of 5
The In: Body Team 12; Chau, Beyond the Lines; Last Day of Freedom
The Out: My Enemy, My Brother; Starting Point; The Testimony

Best Animated Short Film

Predictions: 3 out of 5
The In: Prologue; We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
The Out: Love in the Time of March Madness; An Object at Rest

Best Live-Action Short Film

Predictions: 2 out of 5
The In: Ave Maria; Day One; Everything Will Be Okay
The Out: Bis Gleich; Bad Hunter; Winter Light