2022 Blockbuster Season Box Office Preview: July

Here we look at the upcoming month’s offerings.

July 1, 2022

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Premise: From IMDb: “The untold story of one twelve-year-old’s dream to become the world’s greatest supervillain.”
Box Office Prospects: $280 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first Minions movie outperformed all but the second film in the Despicable Me series. At $363 million, it gives us an idea of how this second film might perform. That said, the third Despicable Me came out after and there was a noticeable drop. With uncertainty about family attention at the box office, I’m going a bit conservative with this prediction.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. The Academy hasn’t shown much interest in this franchise, so I doubt we’ll see it in the Oscar nominations.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Mr. Malcolm’s List

Premise: From IMDb: “A young woman courts a mysterious wealthy suitor in 19th century England.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Period dramas are notorious tough sells at the box office, though they do better on the small screen. While this film with color-blind casting could appeal to a lot of people who were turned on by Bridgerton, so it could do better than I expect.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. While the period costumes and production design could be an Oscar contender, there will be no limit to the number of such films competing and I don’t see this one finding a path through the morass.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

July 8, 2022

Thor: Love and Thunder

Premise: From IMDb: “Thor enlists the help of Valkyrie, Korg and ex-girlfriend Jane Foster to fight Gorr the God Butcher, who intends to make the gods extinct.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Good. The first Thor film premiered to $181 million. The second to $206. Then the third changed the tone of the series and the box office grew to $315. Since the new film seems to stick to that new style, it’s probable that it will approach or even surpass that third film’s numbers.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. The Marvel films rarely score Oscar nominations and when they do, sequels aren’t usually the recipients. However, the number of special effects in this picture is large and that could get it into the Visual Effects race.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

July 15, 2022

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Premise: From IMDb: “A widowed cleaning lady in 1950s London falls madly in love with a couture Dior dress, and decides that she must have one of her own.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Audiences haven’t been enamored with period dramas in some time. Downton Abbey is one of the exceptions and its sequel has so far put up very disappointing numbers. That suggests that this picture won’t have a lot of room to grow.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. This is less costume-friendly than normal period dramas, but it is about a designer dress and films about fashion tend to do better lately than films set in long ago periods. Still, I doubt the film makes it to the end of the year with any buzz.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank

Premise: From IMDb: “Hank, a loveable dog with a head full of dreams about becoming a samurai, sets off in search of his destiny.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. So far, family films have been struggling to regain their vaunted reputations at the box office and so it’s unclear whether this film can counteract that. That said, it looks too dumb to have broad appeal, so a low tally is expecte.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Where the Crawdads Sing

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman who raised herself in the marshes of the deep South becomes a suspect in the murder of a man she was once involved with.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Clearly the source material is popular enough to make a movie from, but popular novels have struggled to make much at the box office in the last few years, though this is decidedly more adult than the teen-friendly efforts that usually get adapted. I don’t expect this one to go very far.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

July 22, 2022

Nope

Premise: From IMDb: “The residents of a lonely gulch in inland California bear witness to an uncanny and chilling discovery.”
Box Office Prospects: $175 M
Expectations: Good. This is Jordan Peele’s third directorial effort. Although it’s difficult to draw conclusions from only two prior features, the fact that both films made just over $175 million at the box office, that’s as good a place to start as any.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Peele’s first film was a huge Oscar player, but his second went nowhere. This seems a little more esoteric and humorous than his thriller/horror prior efforts, so it could benefit from being different.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

July 29, 2022

DC League of Super Pets

Premise: From IMDb: “Superman’s dog teams up with a flying cat to stop crime while Superman is on vacation.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. Although non-Disney/Pixar films have a wide array of box office performance metrics, this has the added benefit of being a DC-themed film, which could benefit its bottom line. That said, the film looks a bit mediocre and that might depress its potential.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

Vengeance

Premise: From IMDb: “A radio host from New York City attempts to solve the murder of his girlfriend and travels down south to investigate the circumstances of her death and discover what happened to her.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. I’m not sure why this has initially been slated for a wide release. It feels like an indie player, so I suspect it will open in less than 1,000 theaters. If so, then this number might actually be a bit high. I suspect $8 million may be more likely, but surprises do happen.
Oscar Prospects: None.
Cinema Sight Preview: See my preview of this title here.

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