2019 Oscar Nominations Predictions: Final

As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

It’s finally here. It feels like it’s too early to believe, but Oscar nomination morning is this coming Monday. We’ve analyzed and re-analyzed, guessed and second-guessed ourselves until we are blue in the face. We will continue to agonize over these picks until they are reality. That said, it has been an interesting year with plenty of changes from beginning to end. Parasite wasn’t a major contender earlier this year and now is. 1917 was a minor blip and is now a frontrunner. Films that were once thought potent disappeared from the radar entirely. Whatever the reason, our choices have changed dramatically over time, but now is the final moment.

We have our standard overall introductions as well as individualized thoughts on each category with limited commentary depending on who is providing it.

Here are our final predictions, come rain or come shine. Here’s wishing everyone the best of luck and for their favorites to get recognized.


KEY:

Appears on Four Lists
Appears on Three Lists
Appears on Two Lists

Wesley Lovell Peter Patrick Tripp Burton Thomas LaTourrette
[New] = New Prediction
[Return] = Prior Prediction Returning
(O) = Original Predictions
(J) = June Predictions
(M) = Mid-Year (July) Predictions
(A) = August Predictions
(P) = Post-Festival (September) Predictions
(C) = October Predictions
(N) = November Predictions
(D) = December Predictions
(F) = Final Predictions

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: While three to four slots in every category have almost been settled, there’s still plenty of room for shocks. While I doubt anything showing up unexpectedly would bother me, it’s hard to be disappointed unless something like Little Women is unfairly penalized for being about women.
Peter J. Patrick: Since we’re likely to see 8 Best Picture nominees instead of the allowable 10, I’d say Ford v Ferrari and The Two Popes are the most vulnerable among my predictions with the other 8 all good to go. I fully expect to see 18 of the 20 BAFTA acting nominations repeated by AMPAS with Cynthia Erivo and Jennifer Lopez nominated instead of Jessie Buckley and Margot Robbie’s second designation. Other than that, I expect to see 4 out of 5 of predictions in most categories come to fruition.
Tripp Burton: The Oscars are early this year, and the last time that happened, we got a whole bunch of surprises on nomination morning, led by a snub of director frontrunner Ben Affleck that threw a wrench into a lot of what we thought we knew about the Oscars. The same could happen this year, especially in a year so rich in contenders. That means that I could miss a whole lot of these this year and embarass myself.
Thomas LaTourette: It is hard to believe that another year had passed and we are ready for another set of Oscar nominations. It feels like this set of predictions is more than tweaked. Very few categories stayed the same from last month. Watching the Golden Globes and hearing the backlash about the slate of directors has made me rethink some early choices. BAFTA, Directors, and Producers guilds nominations have muddied the water too, rather than clarifying it. I have also had a chance to see more of the films and have a better idea of what I would like to see get in. Sadly, several personal favorites, The Two Popes, Jojo Rabbit, Ford v Ferrari, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, are not likely to score a lot of nominations nor many wins. Some of the critics’ darlings just did not do much for me. While there have been lots of good performances, I was not overwhelmed with a number of the films in general, though at the end of the year my feelings about that improved. I really enjoyed Little Women and am baffled by the lack of love it got from the guilds and Globes. I am thinking it will do better and hopefully score a directing nod for Greta Gerwig, and perhaps a couple of acting ones as well. The first four nominations in a category are usually easy to guess, but that last spot can be difficult. It was difficult to leave Christian Bale, Jonathan Pryce, and Cynthia Erivo off my final list, but there is just not room for everyone. It is just a few days now, and then we will know who really did make the list.

Best Picture

  • (37) 1917 WL 10 O PP 10 O TB 7 O TL 10 J
  • (34) Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL 8 O PP 9 O TB 9 A TL 8 O
  • (33) The Irishman WL 9 O PP 7 J TB 8 O TL 9 O
  • (32) Parasite WL 7 D PP 8 P TB 10 P TL 7 P
  • (23) Marriage Story WL 6 P PP 6 A TB 5 A TL 6 P
  • (19) Jojo Rabbit WL 5 P PP 3 C TB 6 D TL 5 P
  • (15) Joker WL 4 D PP 4 D TB 4 D New TL 3 F
  • (15) Little Women WL 3 O PP 5 A TB 3 O TL 4 O
  • (8) Ford v Ferrari WL 2 N PP 2 O TB 2 M TL 2 J
  • (1) Bombshell TL 1 D
  • (1) The Farewell Returned WL 1 F
  • (1) Knives Out New TB 1 F
  • (1) The Two Popes PP 1 P

Wesley Lovell: 1917, Once Upon a Time, The Irishman, Parasite, and Marriage Story are a pretty solid bunch and aren’t likely to be displaced. They are followed by a secondary tier of films that would be a bit shocking if they didn’t make the final cut, but not entirely shocking: Jojo Rabbit, Joker, and Little Women. That alone would take us to eight nominees. Since the expansion to 5+ nominees, the Best Picture slate has never dipped below eight, so this is probably where it ends. That said, The Farewell, Knives Out, Ford v Ferrari, and possibly Pain and Glory, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, and Uncut Gems could fill out a nine or ten slate.
Peter J. Patrick: This has been a year in which there has been such general consensus on what the year’s best films were that it’s hard to imagine anything else breaking into this group with Knives Out, Bombshell, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood having outside chances.
Tripp Burton: A year with this many beloved films is always fun because it leaves us with a lot of questions here. There seem to be six locks in Best Picture: Parasite, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, The Irishman, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, and Marriage Story. After that, Joker and Ford v Ferrari have done really well with the guilds, and Christmas hit Little Women has the momentum to fill out the ninth spot. If there were to be a tenth slot, it could be the much-loved Knives Out. Wild card: a surprise nod for the surprise hit Uncut Gems.
Thomas LaTourette: Most of the nominees seem pretty set, though it will depend on how many there are. I am not a fan of Joker and hate to drop other films for it, but it looks likely to be in the mix. I somehow doubt that Knives Out will make the cut, but it does have its fans. I am thinking that The Farewell will not get a nom, nor The Two Popes. Bombshell and Parasite probably will. I don’t expect any huge surprises here.

Best Animated Feature

  • Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World WL D PP D TL D
  • I Lost My Body WL D PP D TB D TL N
  • Missing Link WL O PP N TB O TL O
  • The Swallows of Kabul TB O
  • Toy Story 4 WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: My five selections have been the most heavily honored of the precursor season with Abominable and Klaus the only other titles receiving regular recognition. That said, I’d be surprised if my five didn’t make the final list.
Peter J. Patrick: The Toy Story, Frozen, and How to Train Your Dragon sequels are almost certain to be nominated with the other two slots up for grabs.
Tripp Burton: Disney-Pixar had the two biggest hits of the year, and both of their sequels should make it in here easily. Netflix’s I Lost My Body has the critical support of the year, and Laika has never missed a nomination here, so look for their Missing Link to also pick up a nomination (although the fact that it is their first box office bomb may not help them). For the fifth nominee, this category likes its foreign entries, so I predict The Swallows of Kabul to sneak in.
Thomas LaTourette: Although the Aademy is not that fond of sequels, I expect them to dominate in a rather weak year. Following its win at the Globes, Missing Link should be guaranteed a spot, continuing Laika’s streak. That leaves one spot for an indie or foreign film. I think it will go to I Lost My Body over Klaus.

Best Director

  • 1917 – Sam Mendes WL D PP J TB D TL P
  • The Irishman – Martin Scorsese WL O PP J TB O TL O
  • Little Women – Greta Gerwig Returned WL F New TB F New TL F
  • Marriage Story – Noah Baumbach PP D
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood – Quentin Tarantino WL O PP O TB A TL O
  • Parasite – Joon-ho Bong WL D PP N TB A TL P

Wesley Lovell: Martin Scorsese, Quentin Tarantino, and Bong Joon-ho are so certain to be nominated that their omission would be utterly shocking. The fourth spot is likely to go to Sam Mendes, especially after his DGA nomination and Golden Globe win, which apparently shocked a lot of people. The fifth slot is incredibly amorphous. At DGA, it went to Todd Phillips. However, his past career doesn’t make it seem likely he’d take the fourth spot. Noah Baumbach has been bubbling under for years, much like Wes Anderson before he was finally nominated. Yet, after the furor over BAFTA failing to nominate a single female director. Greta Gerwig has a good shot of pulling off a surprise nomination. I’m not sold on her chances, simply because the Academy’s directors branch are a isolated bunch, but with the push for diversity, it might just propel her onto the list. Then again, Celine Sciamma has gotten tons of precursors for Portrait of a Lady on Fire and would be just the kind of shocking fifth-slot nominee, the directors branch might have selected a decade ago. Lately, however, they rarely nominate outside of the Best Picture race, so her chances are probably modest at best.
Peter J. Patrick: Scorsese, Tarantino, Mendes, and Bong are virtually certain with Baumbach vying with Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Todd Phillips (Joker), and Taika Waititi (Jojo Rabbit) for the fifth slot.
Tripp Burton: Scorsese, Mendes, Tarantino, and Bong have all picked up the big three nominations — Globes, DGA, BAFTA — which would make them seem certain here. I feel like one of them could easily be vulnerable, but I have no idea who, so I will play it safe. My hunch is that for the fifth slot, the Oscars bypass Todd Phillips and Taika Watiti and give the nomination to Greta Gerwig. Look for something weird to happen here.
Thomas LaTourette: Mendes, Scorsese, and Tarantino should all have guaranteed spots. I think Joon-Ho Bong will as well. The final spot should go to Gerwig, though either Baumbach or Waititi could replace her. If that happens, expect some public shaming of the Academy.

Best Actor

  • Antonio Banderas – Pain & Glory WL A TB O TL D
  • Robert De Niro – The Irishman WL O
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL D PP O New TB F TL O
  • Adam Driver – Marriage Story WL P PP A TB P TL P
  • Taron Egerton – Rocketman New PP F TB C New TL F
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Joker WL P PP D TB N TL P
  • Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes PP P

Wesley Lovell: Although he’s been storming the precursors, Adam Sandler is still just a comedian who occasionally does drama. Matter of fact, the last time he had a performance that could have been an Oscar contender, it was almost two decades ago. That’s not going to help voters think he’s deserving of the accolade Driver and Phoenix, however, have been and they are probably the most solid of this year’s nominees. DiCaprio likely has the third spot sewn up, but the remaining two are difficult to predict. Antonio Banderas has a fairly good shot at becoming number four while Robert De Niro could be carried into the fifth spot based on his personal popularity and that of his film’s. Pencil him in, though, because he has no real acting clip scenes in the film and someone like Taron Egerton does. De Niro is a bit weak and could easily be replaced by Egerton or, if the Academy follows the precursors, Sandler could pick up the nomination against all odds and his push through the campaign circuit might just help.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the toughest category to nail down this year with Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems), and Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name) all having outside chances, but I find it awfully difficult not see nods coming for DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix, and first-time nominees Egerton and Pryce.
Tripp Burton: DiCaprio, Driver, Egerton, and Phoenix all have Globe, SAG, and BAFTA nominations, but every year one person with all three of those fails to carry over, so anything could happen. For the last slot, Banderas seems the most likely to grab a first career nomination, but Adam Sandler, Jonathan Pryce, and Eddie Murphy are all certainly still in the mix, too.
Thomas LaTourette: DiCaprio, Phoenix, and Driver are set. The last two spots could go many ways, which makes this category harder to predict. I would love to see Jonathan Pryce’s joyful portrayal of the future [Pope] Francis I get in, though I’m thinking that unlikely. Christian Bale also looks to be an also ran. Egerton and Banderas may well fill out the category, but Eddie Murphy is always a possibility.

Best Actress

  • Awkwafina – The Farewell TL O
  • Cynthia Erivo – Harriet PP O TB D
  • Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story WL N PP A TB P TL P
  • Lupita Nyong’o – Us WL D
  • Saoirse Ronan – Little Women Returned WL F PP O TB O New TL F
  • Charlize Theron – Bombshell WL D PP C TB C TL N
  • Renée Zellweger – Judy WL O PP M TB C TL O

Wesley Lovell: Johansson, Theron, and Zellweger, are the most recognized names on any list. That could also be said of Lupita Nyong’o, but we all know how horror films are treated by the Academy. That said, Nyong’o could be the sole nominee of color on this year’s nomination slate, so Academy voters are likely to take that into account. That and she has won the most precursors of any actress this year. That brings us to the fifth slot. Initially, I thought it might be Awkwafina or Erivo, but the latter’s film bombed and doesn’t appear to be a player anymore and the former is a good choice, but one that might be a bridge to far for voters who don’t like her name. Ultimately, Awkwafina’s biggest competition is a previous nominee, someone who’s film may be peaking at the right time. Saoirse Ronan has a good bet of making it onto the slate, possibly even over Nyong’o who is probably the weakest contender on this list.
Peter J. Patrick: Zellweger and Johannson are probably the only certainties, but Ronan and Theron seem extremely likely with Erivo the strongest of the possibilities for the fifth slot.
Tripp Burton: The Globes, SAG, and BAFTA all nominated Johansson, Theron, and Zellweger, who lead the pack here. As Little Women keeps picking up steam, Ronan looks more and more like a solid bet. The fifth slot is probably Cynthia Erivo, who has Globe and SAG nominations, although critical darling Lupita Nyong’o is close.
Thomas LaTourette: I cannot imagine Zellwegger, Johannsson, or Theron not being nominated. Ronan now seems likely too. That leaves Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo, Lupita Nyong’o, and Alfre Woodard battling for the final spot. It is a pity that more can’t be nominated, but the academy doesn’t do that, unlike the Emmys. I will go with Awkwafina, but could imagine one of the others taking her place.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood WL D PP P New TB F TL P
  • Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes New WL F PP P TL P
  • Al Pacino – The Irishman WL O PP J TB D TL O
  • Joe Pesci – The Irishman WL D PP N TB O TL C
  • Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL D PP A TB A TL M
  • Kang-ho Song – Parasite New TB F

Wesley Lovell: Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt, the three P’s, are the most secure. Though, if any were to fall, it would be Pacino, strangely enough. The remaining two spots will likely go to Tom Hanks and Anthony Hopkins. That said, Song Kang-ho has been well recognized this season and if Parasite is going to be as big as it is, he could very well benefit. The language barrier hasn’t stopped actors from nominations before, so he could easily beat out Anthony Hopkins, who would be coasting into a nomination on name recognition alone.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the most solid of all the acting categories with Pitt, Hopkins, Hanks, Pesci, and Pacino all likely to be nominated.
Tripp Burton: The Globes and BAFTA both agreed on 5 — Hanks, Hopkins, Pacino, Pesci, and Pitt — but that all feels way too safe of a line-up. My guess is the burgeoning love for Parasite, and expanded internationalism of the Academy, pushes Song Kang-ho into the final five over Hopkins.
Thomas LaTourette: I don’t see any of my five choices not being nominated. This seems the surest group.

Best Supporting Actress

  • Laura Dern – Marriage Story WL C PP A TB P TL M
  • Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit New WL F New PP F New TB F
  • Jennifer Lopez – Hustlers WL D PP N TB D TL P
  • Florence Pugh – Little Women WL D New PP F TB N TL N
  • Margot Robbie – Bombshell WL D PP D TB O TL N
  • Zhao Shuzhen – The Farewell Returned TL F

Wesley Lovell: Dern, Pugh, and Robbie are the only names that seem certain. Johansson has managed to stick around longer for Jojo Rabbit than anyone expected and could easily secure double nominations this year, a rare feat. Filling things out, I was thinking that Shuzhen, being in the more familiar film. However, Jennifer Lopez, in spite of being the kind of musical talent-turned-actor that often gets ignored by the Academy, has been holding her own in the competition this year and is much more likely to land a nomination than Adam Sandler is in Best Actor.
Peter J. Patrick: This is the most wide-open of the acting categories with Dern the only one who is seemingly invincible. Johansson, Lopez, Pugh, and Robbie could easily be upset by former winners Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) and Octavia Spencer (Luce) and/or former nominees Annette Bening (The Report) and Julie Walters (Wild Rose).
Tripp Burton: This category is crazy this year, with nine performances nominated between the Globes, BAFTA, and SAG. Dern and Robbie picked up all three and seem like locks here, and Hollywood icon Lopez is a lock. As Little Women becomes a hit, Florence Pugh seems like a likely fourth nominee. For the fifth, however, it is anyone’s guess. Kathy Bates, Nicole Kidman, or anyone from Parasite are legitimate contenders, but I’m going to guess that never-nominated Scarlett Johansson becomes a two-time nominee in a matter of minutes.
Thomas LaTourette: Dern and Robbie are definites. Probably Lopez too. The love for Little Women may get Pugh in as well. The last spot is much harder to predict. Annette Bening, Zhao Shuzhen, or Kathy Bates might fill it. Or the Academy could make a double nominee out of Scarlett Johansson, a feat that has not happened in many years.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The Farewell WL O PP C TL O
  • Knives Out WL D New PP F New TB F New TL F
  • Marriage Story WL P PP O TB O TL O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Pain & Glory TB C
  • Parasite WL D PP P TB P TL P

Wesley Lovell: This is probably the weaker of the screenwriting categories this year. While Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time, and Parasite are certain nominees and are strong in and of themselves, the other potential spoilers, Knives Out and The Farewell seem like also-rans in more competitive years, but will probably win out because of their respective strengths in the precursors. Booksmart and Pain and Glory could also surprise as could 1917.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Best Picture contenders Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, and Parasite are all guaranteed slots here, and surprise hit Knives Out has shown up in enough precursors that it seems safe. For the fifth slot, both 1917 and Booksmart have precursor love, but I think previous winner Almodovar could surprise everyone with a nomination for Pain and Glory.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood TL P
  • The Irishman WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Jojo Rabbit WL P PP P TB O TL P
  • Joker WL D New PP F TB D
  • Little Women WL O New PP F TB O TL O
  • The Two Popes New WL F PP C New TB F TL C

Wesley Lovell: That we largely agree on four of the five potential nominees in this category gives them the upper hand. Right now, we aren’t certain if Joker will follow the Logan path or the Wonder Woman path. That said, Joker has the better reviews and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood seems to have few prospects outside of Best Supporting Actor, which helps Joker out a good deal.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: The BAFTA line-up The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Woman, and The Two Popes should translate 5/5 here. I don’t see anything else really sneaking in.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Original Song

  • Glasgow – Wild Rose WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • (I’m Gonna) Love Me Again – Rocketman WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Into the Unknown – Frozen II WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Speechless – Aladdin PP O
  • Spirit – The Lion King WL O TB O TL O
  • Stand Up – Harriet WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: “Glasgow” looks to be the art house nominee most likely to show up and Sir Elton John and Bernie Taupin made a point at the Golden Globes that they had never previously won an award together. Look for that to propel the track from Rocketman into the winner’s circle. Some thought “Into the Unknown” was one of the weaker songs in Frozen II, but it’s the track Disney chose to submit. That could mean its the weak title out. “Spirit” and “Stand Up” have both received numerous nominations this season, as has “Speechless.” Then again, this category has been known to toss in a nominee from a documentary and there are a handful that could easily take that fifth spot.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: To be honest, I have no idea what is going to happen with this category. The songs from Rocketman, Frozen II, and The Lion King all seem to be locks, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them left off here. After that, look for the celebrity of Mary Steenburgen and Cynthia Erivo to carry “Glasgow” and “Stand Up” to nominations, although remember that this category always has a good surprise or two in store. We could have a dark horse from The Black Godfather, The Bronx USA, or Parasite sneak in.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Original Score

  • 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Ford v Ferrari PP O TB O
  • Frozen II PP O
  • Joker WL O PP O New TL F
  • Little Women WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Marriage Story New WL F TB O TL O
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: 1917, Joker, Little Women, and Marriage Story have been among the most frequently cited scores. Us is another, but horror films don’t do very well in this category, at least not consistently in some time. That gives Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, the last score in the vaunted franchise ever composed by legendary John Williams, that it missing out would be a bit of a shock. Look for Parasite as a potential spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: The frontrunners here seem to be Academy favorites Alexandre Desplat for Little Women and Thomas Newman (who has never won) for 1917. After that, John Williams and Randy Newman are always solid bets for a nomination, here for Star Wars and Marriage Story. For the fifth slot, I see Marco Beltrami’s Ford v Ferrari score sneaking in over Joker or Jojo Rabbit.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Film Editing

  • 1917 WL O PP O TL O
  • Ford v Ferrari WL D PP O TB O TL O
  • The Irishman WL O TB O TL O
  • Jojo Rabbit TB D
  • Joker New PP F
  • Marriage Story PP O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O New TB F TL O
  • Parasite WL D TB O TL D

Wesley Lovell: Apart from one nominee in this category every year (typically), this category is filled with Oscar contenders. Matter of fact, your eventual Best Picture winner is more likely to come from this category than from any other outside of Best Directing. As such, look for the major contenders to show up here: 1917, The Irishman, and Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood. Ford v Ferrari has been ever-present in precursors for this category, which leaves one spot open. It could go to Oscar contenders Parasite, Marriage Story, or Little Women, but Joker and Jojo Rabbit are also in contention. Right now, Parasite seems like a solid bet based solely on its immense popularity, but Little Women did more fancy editing going back and forth in time with a great deal of success, which could make it a spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: A lot of the big Best Picture contenders will be battling out for this nomination, so look for this five.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Cinematography

  • 1917 WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Ford v Ferrari PP O TB O
  • The Irishman WL O TB O TL O
  • Joker New WL F New PP F New TB F New TL F
  • The Lighthouse WL D TL N
  • Little Women New PP F
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: The Lighthouse was ignored by the American Society of Cinematographers, which makes it one of the weaker items on this list. That said, I’d be surprised if it lost its spot to something like Ford v Ferrari, which did get the ASC citation. That said, perhaps they know something we don’t and Blaschke may be persona non-grata there. The big surprise really could be Portrait of a Lady on Fire, which has burned up the precursors in this category alongside Parasite, which is more of a dark horse contender. Only 1917 and Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood are really certain to show up.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: The ASC five seem like the most likely to carry over here, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see A Hidden Life or Parasite sneak in over Joker or Ford v Ferrari.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Production Design

  • 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Aladdin New TB O
  • The Irishman New WL O New TB O New TL O
  • Jojo Rabbit New TL O
  • Joker New PP O
  • Little Women New WL O New PP O New TL O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Parasite New WL O New PP O New TB O

Wesley Lovell: Once Upon a Time and 1917 seem like the strongest contenders with The Irishman and Little Women having solid chances. Parasite does that rare feat where it constructs the entirety of the set rather than finding a place and converting it. That could prove a boon to the film. Then again, it could end up that a lot of these get left aside for a better overlap with the Costume Design category.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: This is a hard category to predict, and could lead to a surprise like Aladdin or Parasite, over some of the more traditional nominees like Jojo Rabbit.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Costume Design

  • Dolemite Is My Name New WL O New TB O New TL O
  • Downton Abbey New TL O
  • The Irishman New PP O
  • Jojo Rabbit New WL O New TB O
  • Judy New PP O
  • Little Women New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Rocketman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Wesley Lovell: There are two guarantees with a bunch in between Dolemite Is My Name and Rocketman seem assured spots. Jojo Rabbit relies heavily on costumes to define its characters and the film’s events, but it could be the weaker choice here. Once Upon a Time has plenty of groovy costumes and in spite of its shut out at the Costume Designers Guild, Little Women seems like it should be right up this group’s alley. While normally, you could expect 3 or 4 films to overlap between here and Production Design, the fluctuation of both categories this year could result in a smaller crossover.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: The costume guild and BAFTA only overlapped on two nominees this year — Jojo Rabbit and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood — which means that a lot of this category is up in the air. It could lead to some different nominees than just a bunch of Best Picture candidates.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  • Bombshell WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Dolemite Is My Name TB O
  • Joker WL O New TB F TL O
  • Judy WL O New PP F TB O TL O
  • Little Women PP O
  • Maleficent: Mistress of Evil TB O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood WL O PP O TL O
  • Rocketman WL O PP O New TL F

Wesley Lovell: Based on what we’ve seen and heard about these, Bombshell and Rocketman are pretty certain with Joker and Once Upon a Time likely fillers. Judy is my bet to fill in the fifth slot, but stranger things have happened in this category and Dolemite could be the spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: There are five nominees this year for the first time, and I’m not really sure yet what that will mean. Bombshell and Judy seem like the biggest locks, with love of Joker (and a supposedly hilarious bake-off presentation) carrying it to a nomination. Maleficent and Dolemite are flashy nominees, but 1917 could enter the mix if it gets on a huge nomination roll.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Sound Mixing

  • 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Avengers: Endgame New TL O
  • Ford v Ferrari New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • The Irishman New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Joker New PP O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New WL O New PP O New TB O
  • Rocketman New WL O New TB O New TL O

Wesley Lovell: None of these seem like frontrunners for nominations, but Rocketman is the most likely beneficiary of the musical elements mixed with the fantasy ones. The rest are all strong contenders and even Avengers: Endgame could pull off a nomination. It’s just too difficult to tell for sure. Expect this list to match up roughly 4 to 5 with Sound Editing.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Always go with the musicals, the war films, and the car racing.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Sound Editing

  • 1917 New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • Avengers: Endgame New WL O New TB O New TL O
  • Ford v Ferrari New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
  • The Irishman New PP O New TB O
  • Joker New WL O New PP O
  • Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood New PP O
  • Rocketman New TL O
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker New WL O New TB O New TL O

Wesley Lovell: This category has become almost impossible to predict since it was expanded to five nominees and was no longer subjected to a bake-off contest. That said, most of my picks are solid ones and none really feel weak, but anyone of them could easily be replaced. Expect this list to match up roughly 4 to 5 with Sound Mixing.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Just a feeling on these five.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Visual Effects

  • 1917 WL D PP D
  • Alita: Battle Angel New WL F New TB F New TL F
  • Avengers: Endgame WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • The Irishman WL N PP O TB C TL P
  • The Lion King TB O TL O
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Terminator: Dark Fate PP D

Wesley Lovell: While Alita: Battle Angel doesn’t seem like the kind of fifth-slot selection the visual effects branch is known for making, few of the others are as well. It’s probably the least secure, but the love its received from various groups, including the Visual Effects Society, suggests it’s probably stronger than 1917 or The Irishman and any one of them could be replaced by The Lion King, which I suspect will miss the list only because of the flak it’s received over not being live-action.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: The Lion King and The Irishman are the most talked about effects of the year and seem locked. Avengers and Star Wars should continue a string of success for their franchises. For the fifth slot, I’ll go on a limb and predict that Alita gets the nomination for great effects in a film no one seems to care much for.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Foreign Language Film

  • Atlantics WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Beanpole TB O
  • Corpus Christi PP O
  • Honeyland New TL F
  • Les Misérables WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Pain and Glory WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • The Painted Bird WL O
  • Parasite WL O PP O TB O TL O

Wesley Lovell: Parasite and Pain and Glory are the only guarantees. All the rest are guesses. That said, Les Misérables and Atlantics are the most recognized of the remaining choices and seem like good bets. My final pick, The Painted Bird is a left-field choice that I have no confidence in, but I wouldn’t have confidence in any of my fifth-slot picks. That said, Les Mis and Atlantics aren’t locked in, nor is Pain and Glory if this branch goes sideways as it has in the past.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Parasite and Pain & Glory seem like solid locks in this category. After that, the entries from France and Russia are well praised, and Senegal has Netflix behind it. These feel like the most likely five to me, but expect a surprise.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Documentary Feature

  • Advocate PP O
  • American Factory WL O New PP F TB O TL O
  • Apollo 11 WL O PP O TL O
  • The Cave TB O New TL F
  • For Sama WL O New PP F TB O TL O
  • Honeyland New WL F TB O TL O
  • One Child Nation WL O PP O TB O

Wesley Lovell: My five selections are the ones I’ve heard the most about. One Child Nation seems to be the weakest of the set and could be replaced by anything, but with documentary filmmakers, you ever know what they’ll love and any one of these could disappear at the drop of a hat.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: There is always one big surprise miss in this category, and this year that will probably be Apollo 11, the most widely-seen contender. In its stead, the Obama factor should help American Factory move into the number one slot. The others are all relevant and watchable contenders, but The Biggest Little Farm and The Edge of Democracy could sneak in here.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Documentary Short Subject

  • After Maria WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Fire in Paradie WL O PP O TB O TL O
  • Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) WL O TB O New TL F
  • Life Overtakes Me PP O
  • The Nightcrawlers WL O TB O
  • St. Louis Superman WL O PP O TB O
  • Stay Close PP O New TL F
  • Walk Run Cha-Cha TL O

Wesley Lovell: I really don’t have much to say on these. Based on their subject matters, I made as educated of guesses as I possibly could, but I could just as easily be 100% wrong.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Netflix has four contenders here and could run the table, but I expect only two of their films (After Maria and Fire in Paradise) to make it in. After that, it is a free-for-all.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Animated Short Film

  • Dcera (Daughter) TL O
  • Hair Love WL O TB O New TL F
  • He Can’t Live without Cosmos WL O PP O
  • Kitbull WL O TB O New TL F
  • Memorable WL O PP O
  • Mind My Mind TB O
  • The Physics of Sorrow PP O TB O TL O
  • Sister WL O PP O TB O New TL F
  • Uncle Thomas: Counting the Days PP O

Wesley Lovell: I really don’t have much to say on these. Based on their subject matters, I made as educated of guesses as I possibly could, but I could just as easily be 100% wrong.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Pure guesses here.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

Best Live-Action Short Film

  • Brotherhood PP O New TL F
  • The Christmas Gift WL O PP O TB O
  • Little Hands TB O TL O
  • Miller & Son WL O PP O TB O
  • Nefta Football Club TB O
  • The Neighbor’s Window PP O TB O TL O
  • Refugee WL O TL O
  • Saria WL O
  • A Sister New TL F
  • Sometimes, I Think About Dying WL O PP O

Wesley Lovell: I really don’t have much to say on these. Based on their subject matters, I made as educated of guesses as I possibly could, but I could just as easily be 100% wrong.
Peter J. Patrick: (no commentary provided)
Tripp Burton: Pure guesses here.
Thomas LaTourette: (no commentary provided)

2 Comments

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  1. Yesterday, I also updated my predictions to swap in Dolemite Is My Name and swap out Judy.

  2. I just updated my personal predictions to swap out The Farewell for Pain and Glory in Original Screenplay.

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