So far, February isn’t looking too exciting. The only film I’m excited to see is The Woman in Black and the rest are mostly films I will never watch with a handful I’ll have to go see with friends and a few that I am curious about, but probably won’t see in the theater. February, because of all of the Academy Awards hoopla tends to be fairly innocuous in terms of big name releases, though there are a few to watch out for.

February 3, 2012

Big Miracle

Premise: “In small town Alaska, a news reporter recruits his ex-girlfriend – a Greenpeace volunteer – on a campaign to save a family of gray whales trapped by rapidly forming ice in the Arctic Circle.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: It has that feel good quality that makes a lot of minor films successful. Drew Barrymore hasn’t had a hit in awhile, so the circumstances are a bit of a challenge for her.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Chronicle

Premise: “Three high school friends gain superpowers after making an incredible discovery. Soon, though, they find their lives spinning out of control and their bond tested as they embrace their darker sides.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Part of me wants to predict a slightly higher total, making it a success on the same level of young adult-friendly I Am Number Four last year around this time. However, the film hasn’t had nearly the press it needs, so I’m thinking it may end up a failure.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Woman in Black

Premise: “A young lawyer travels to a remote village where he discovers the vengeful ghost of a scorned woman is terrorizing the locals.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Daniel Radcliffe is the latest franchise star to attempt to strike out on his own. So far Robert Pattinson, Taylor Lautner and Kristen Stewart of the Twilight films have had little success and Radcliffe’s co-stars Rupert Grint and Emma Watson have had downright flops. However, Radcliffe has a potent combination in this film. Gothic horror tends to draw large audiences to the theater. Add to that curiosity of how well Radcliffe can lead a film on his own (the best actor of the five previously mentioend) may send the film higher than expected.
Oscar Prospects: If the film is a huge success, I could see art directors and costume designers giving it a few mentions, but opening so early in the year may mean the film is forgotten by year’s end.

February 10, 2011

Journey 2: The Mysterious Island

Premise: “Sean Anderson partners with his mom’s boyfriend on a mission to find his grandfather, who is thought to be missing on a mythical island.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: The first film was a surprising success, but what made the first film so entertaining for a lot of people doesn’t seem to be in evidence here. Why else would they be releasing the film in February and not July where the original debuted. I think my total is a bit overzealous since the Star Wars 3D feature will likely cannibalize available theaters.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Safe House

Premise: “A young CIA agent is tasked with looking after a fugitive in a safe house. But when the safe house is attacked, he finds himself on the run with his charge.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Ryan Reynolds and Denzel Washington are both uneven when it comes to the box office, but the premise alone, set against its competition may make it something of a success, though a minor one.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace 3D

Premise: “Two Jedi Knights uncover a wider conflict when they are sent as emissaries to the blockaded planet Naboo.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Part of me hopes that George Lucas’ latest money grab will be an abject failure, but as the success of retread The Devil Inside proves, audiences will buy just about anything.
Oscar Prospects: Ineligible.

The Vow

Premise: “A car accident puts Paige (McAdams) in a coma, and when she wakes up with severe memory loss, her husband Leo (Tatum) works to win her heart again.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: A corny premise, a hostile box office environment for romantic dramas and a slate of heavily male-oriented films this weekend may spell death for this film, though it could be appropriate counter-programming.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Also Releasing this weekend: In Darkness, 2011 Oscar Foreign Language Film submission, “a dramatization of one man’s rescue of Jewish refugees in the Nazi-occupied Polish city of Lvov.”; Undefeated, 2011 Oscar Documentary Feature shortlist candidate, “A documentary on an underdog football team who look to reverse their fortunes with coach Bill Courtney.”

February 17, 2012

Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance

Premise: “As Johnny Blaze hides out in Eastern Europe, he is called upon to stop the devil, who is trying to take human form.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Another film that will likely be a success in spite of itself. Nicolas Cage hasn’t had a hit in a long time, but this film has a built-in audience and the original had a smashing run. I see little reason not to expect this to be a success even if I hope it won’t be.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Secret World of Arrietty

Premise: “The Clock family are four-inch-tall people who live anonymously in another family’s residence, borrowing simple items to make their home. Life changes for the Clocks when their daughter, Arrietty, is discovered.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: If Hayao Miyazaki’s most acclaimed features couldn’t break the $15 million barrier, this Miyazaki-looking anime film may face similar hurdles. The one bonus this film has over Miyazaki’s is that it’s being advertised heavily and is opening wide, something Miyazaki’s films unfortunately never got.
Oscar Prospects: Animated Feature isn’t as hostile an environment to anime as the American marketplace, so it could compete.

This Means War

Premise: “Two top CIA operatives wage an epic battle against one another after they discover they are dating the same woman.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: It’s a novel enough concept that a lot of curious moviegoers will flock to see it. It’s likely, however, that the film will make most of its gross in its opening weekend then quickly crash and burn out.
Oscar Prospects: None.

February 24, 2012

Act of Valor

Premise: “An elite team of Navy SEALs embark on a covert mission to recover a kidnapped CIA agent.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: World War II was a unique situation wherein audiences wanted to take their mind off war and watch pro-U.S. propaganda. This semi-fictional film about Navy Seals starring real Navy Seals seems like just the type of pro-government film that would have done brilliant box office 60 years ago but will struggle to find an audience today.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Gone

Premise: “When her sister disappears, Jill is convinced the serial killer who kidnapped her two years ago has returned, and she sets out to once again face her abductor.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Amanda Seyfried isn’t a box office draw and this female-skewed film doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that does well in the theater, but does ok on DVD.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds

Premise: “Right before his wedding, an affluent man (Perry) develops complicating feelings for a single mom.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Never underestimate the power of Tyler Perry. His films while not mega blockbusters are generally highly profitable. Thanks to smaller budgets, Perry’s films have a target demographic that will turn up no matter how savaged the film is. It’s an almost-guaranteed success. What keeps it from being absolutely certain is that Perry has failed a few times and without his signature Madea character in tow, his target audience may not be as keen to give the film their time. Then there’s the flop For Colored Girls.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Wanderlust

Premise: “Rattled by sudden unemployment, a Manhattan couple surveys alternative living options, ultimately deciding to experiment with living on a rural commune where free love rules.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: I don’t have high expectations for this. It was moved from a more cushy spot in 2011 and shunted into late February, a sign that the studio isn’t confident in its capabilities. Still, its likable leads could help it along.
Oscar Prospects: None.