June 3, 2011

X-Men: First Class

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “The prior films weren’t really Oscar bait, though the tech categories might see some movement if the film is huge.”
Oscar Results: It’s still not a top tier category contender, but several creative categories should be within reach: Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. Even though I think the film will suffer at the box office due to its lack of major stars like the first films, these films have steadily increased in value with the last of the trilogy making north of $230 million. The big problem is that popular X-Man Wolverine (Hugh Jackman) only made $170+ million at the box office for his origin film, so that doesn’t give enough hope.”
Box Office Results: $146.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] You have to give the film credit. Despite a lack of major names to sell the film and only a faded franchise to build an audience with, the end result is quite exceptional. Higher would definitely have been nicer.

June 10, 2011

Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Low. I don’t expect the film to appeal to many outside of the tween girl demo and unless the advertising push is strong, it may not perform very well.”
Box Office Results: $15.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A kid’s film with low expectations underperforming those predictions is a sad sight indeed. Despite a well known source, fans just weren’t excited about coming out to see it.

Super 8

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Depending on how the film is received it will mostly contend in tech categories.”
Oscar Results: The film didn’t wow at the box office like it needed to in order to position itself as a popular choice for Best Picture and considering a number of other films this year were better reviewed and higher grossing, I think it’s probably going to resign itself to the lower creative categories like Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects and perhaps even Original Score.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Moderate. J.J. Abrams isn’t exactly a box office igniter, but I’m sure the film will do suitably well.”
Box Office Results: $126.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Despite J.J. Abrams’ lack of source material to prop up box office attendance, the film performed quite well, making a satisfactory $126.5 million. A higher gross would have been better of course, but Abrams is no Spielberg, even if he stole everything from the master.

June 17, 2011

Green Lantern

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Visual Effects could be on course, but too much CGI might doom it.”
Oscar Results: Visual Effects is still in the cards simply because of how stong the work was.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. There aren’t a lot of prominent blockbusters available during June, so this one could do quite well.”
Box Office Results: $116.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] A superhero product can generally be expected to make north of $100 million at the box office. So this result is certainly no surprise, but that it was only barely above the century mark shows how weak the film performed. Well under my expectations, but not an utter bomb (after all, despite the box office performance, they’ve ordered a sequel).

Mr. Popper’s Penguins

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Visual Effects are what most summer films try for, but I’m not sure this one will succeed.”
Oscar Results: With the disappointing box office and drubbing from critics, I don’t even think Visual Effects are very likely now.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. Carrey hasn’t had the kind of box office phenomenon he’s used to in quite some time. This could be a chance to reverse the course and justify his salary, but competing against Green Lantern will be tough.”
Box Office Results: $67.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Any Jim Carrey result south of $100 million must be considered a flop and this one is no exception. Maybe this will free Carrey up to do more challenging work?

June 24, 2011

Bad Teacher

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still none.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Modest. It looks somewhat funny, but neither Justin Timberlake nor Cameron Diaz have really had a solid test of their box office draw potential. Still, it could do quite well being one of the few comedies on the block.”
Box Office Results: $98.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Despite my high prediction, this film was largely a question mark leading into its release. Despite Cameron Diaz’s name attached and the appearance of Justin Timberlake, neither has proven box office magnets in recent years. And in spite of this, the film still managed to pull just under $100 million at the box office, a fairly solid result.

Cars 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A Best Animated Feature nomination is guaranteed. A win is unlikely. It’s biggest shot comes if Kung Fu Panda 2 disappoints and nothing else comes along.”
Oscar Results: Now it isn’t Kung Fu Panda 2 it has to worry about. It’s the fact that the film tanked with critics and is roundly seen as the worst Pixar film to date. What will win is still up in the air at this point, but a win for Cars 2 seems out of line at this time.
Box Office Prediction: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “High. The first film managed nearly $250 million and was frequently cited as one of the least impressive of Pixar’s oeuvre. However, the marketing pushes in the last year have been strong and the merchandising has cemented a following. This will likely be the biggest hit of the summer, which will be nothing new for Pixar.”
Box Office Results: $189.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While almost $200 million at the box office is nothing to sneeze at, the reason I am citing this film as a flop is not only was it the first Pixar feature film to get largely negative reviews, it managed to make only $189 million at the box office despite massive marketing expenditures and a huge merchandising franchise. These factors should have brought audiences to theaters in droves, but it didn’t.