November is the first month where the biggest contenders start seeing release. Although December has a great deal of Oscar contenders, November is also a good month to look at.

November 4, 2011

Tower Heist

Premise: Brett Ratner’s film about a ragtag group of hotel employees whose pension fund is diminished in a Ponzi scheme. They take matters into their own hands and plot a heist to steal the money back from the wealthy perpetrator who lives in their hotel.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. Although neither have been box office magnets in the last few years, both Eddie Murphy and Ben Stiller together in a comedy caper should draw decent interest at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.

A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas

Premise: When Harold & Kumar accidentally burn down a prize Christmas tree, their caper leads them on a Yuletide adventure in three dimensions.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Modest. The first two films, although not box office juggernauts did suitable business for the type of film. This one, with added 3D ticket prices (and it sure looks like it will be fun in 3D), and the growing stoner-hungry fanbase, it could do moderately good business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

November 11, 2011

11-11-11

Premise: Three-time Saw franchise writer-director Darren Lynn Bousman uses the mystical time and date combo to tell the story of an alien entity entering the earthly realm through Heaven’s unheard of 11th Gate.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Modest. For horror fans (and this one whose birthday is also that day), this should be the perfect post-Halloween scare. Bousman’s work has often obtained cult status (see Repo! The Genetic Opera), so this could be another of those potential hits.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Immortals

Premise: The visually provocative director of The Cage, takes on the Greek saga of the battle between King Hyperion, a vicious, blood thirsty war monster, and the Zeus-chosen mortal Theseus.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Modest. The film has plenty of visual elements that will draw fans of movies like 300, but Singh is a rather curious director and repeat business may not be in the cards.
Oscar Prospects: Art Direction, Costume Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects are the only categories it will likely have a chance at and I don’t think any of them are going to work out.

J. Edgar

Premise: Clint Eastwood’s biopic of notorious FBI director J. Edgar Hoover.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. Eastwood’s film has been earning buzz for some time and although it’s starting out in limited release, I expect it to expand later in the year and do good business, especially if it does well with the Academy.
Oscar Prospects: There’s little doubt that this film is one of the big contenders for this year’s Oscars. Eastwood has seldom not entered the Oscar race with his films and this one, being a period drama about a controversial figure written by another Oscar winner (Dustin Lance Black) and starring Oscar nominees Leonardo DiCaprio and Naomi Watts, and Oscar winner Judi Dench and further boosting the building reputation of budding leading man Armie Hammer, all of whom could be Oscar nominees come January. Add to that potential nominations in Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Sound and you have one of the biggest Oscar flagships of the holiday season.

Jack and Jill

Premise: Adam Sandler tries on Eddie Murphy’s fat suit to play his own twin sister in this lewd comedy about warring siblings.
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: High. Sandler is need of a big box office hit and this looks like the perfect vehicle.
Oscar Prospects: As with Eddie Murphy’s prosthetic-heavy Nutty Professor, you can’t count out a potential nomination for Best Makeup.

Melancholia

Premise: As a mysterious new planet moves on a collision course towards earth, two sisters find it challenging to survive their strained marital relationships.
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Weak. Lars von Trier created quite a stir at Cannes this year, taking a controversial stance in support of Hitler. The move almost doomed his film with voters, though Kirsten Dunst came out of it with a prize, but that opinion may keep his already impoverish box office totals from getting much better.
Oscar Prospects: Some have talked Dunst for a longshot nomination, but I doubt the film will figure in the top tier categories. It does have a chance at Art Direction and Costume Design nominations.

November 18, 2011

The Descendants

Premise: George Clooney plays a beleaguered father who must reconnect with his two daughters following his wife’s crippling boat accident.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Modest. While Clooney’s last indie film did modest, but unimpressive business at the box office, this film is more accessible for modern audiences, meaning it could perform quite well in limited release.
Oscar Prospects: Clooney’s received strong notices for his performance in Alexander Payne’s new film. Payne, no stranger to the Oscars, could help the film and its star to several nominations including Best Picture, Actor (Clooney), Supporting Actress (Shailene Woodley), Supporting Actor (Robert Forster) and Adapted Screenplay.

Happy Feet Two

Premise: Sequel to the penguin hit of 2006, this production promises more toe-tapping excitement as young penguins dance and sing to modern pop hits.
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Terrific. You don’t create a sequel to a huge box office hit about singing penguins without expecting it to do gonzo box office. Kung Fu Panda 2 notwithstanding, these kinds of films always do well, frequently outperforming their surprisingly high-grossing originals.
Oscar Prospects: One of a handful of Best Animated Feature contenders, the film won’t likely figure in any other race.

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1

Premise: The first part of the final chapter in the Twilight Saga comes to a close as Bella chooses Edward, marries him and then ends up pregnant. The mixture of human and vampire chemistry creates complications for the winsome Bella leading the werewolf clans to converge on the vampires in one final battle for supremacy.
Box Office Prospects: $315 M
Expectations: Terrific. Each prior film has increased its box office haul over the prior, a rare feat for films in a series (The Two Towers under-performed The Fellowship of the Ring and most of the Harry Potter films couldn’t live up to The Sorcerer’s Stone‘s vast riches). I expect this one to do slightly better than its predecessor, but ultimately less business than the final chapter due out next year.
Oscar Prospects: None.

November 23, 2011

Arthur Christmas

Premise: Saint Nick’s youngest son has a mission and he plans to use his father’s vast, high-tech operation to help him succeed.
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Aardman animation is no stranger to the U.S. box office. Chicken Run topped $100 million in its 2000 run while Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit dis a more modest $56 million in 2005. Six years later, the stop-motion masters bring a Christmas story to the big screen, which should do well over Thanksgiving and proceed through the holiday season with little effort.
Oscar Prospects: Aardman has been a mainstay of the Academy for years since Nick Park debuted Wallace and Gromit in A Grand Day Out back in 1989. With six nominations under the company’s belt (and 4 Oscars to boot), you can bet this will be a strong contender for Best Animated Feature this year.

The Artist

Premise: A silent film that explores the rise of a young starlet at the expensive of her mentor.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Modest. For a cinematic experience, film enthusiasts will flock to the first major silent feature since Mel Brooks’ Silent Movie in 1976. The festival circuit has yielded great interest in the film and many are talking big things awards-wise for the film. The box office however, will remain limited.
Oscar Prospects: The film could do extremely well with the Academy. A black-and-white silent feature hasn’t been seen in so many years that history buffs will likely want to put it into the running simply to show that the Hollywood machine can support long-expired modes of filmmaking. Whether the film’s any good or not, it will still be the talk of awards season and nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Jean Dujardin), Actress (Missi Pyle), Supporting Actor (John Goodman, James Cromwell), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design could all be in the works.

A Dangerous Method

Premise: Exploring the relationship between psychoanalytical pioneers Carl Jung (Michael Fassbender) and Sigmund Freud (Viggo Mortensen), the film examines the methods employed by Jung in trying to cure a dangerous young woman (Keira Knightley).
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Modest. For an art house film, it should do suitably well of interest in its Oscar-caliber work. Any cross-over potential to general audiences will be lost in the film’s period setting.
Oscar Prospects: Before the film opened to satisfactory, if unexceptional, notices, it was talked up in several categories including Best Picture, Actor (Fassbender), Actress (Knightley), Supporting Actor (Mortensen), Adapted Screenplay, Original Score, Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design and Makeup. Now its chances have dwindled to consideration in mainly the creative categories, though upper level nods could still happen.

Hugo

Premise: Martin Scorsese’s children’s film, shot entirely in 3D, follows a young orphan as he tries to uncover the secrets his father hid away in his many clockwork creations.
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Solid. Scorsese hasn’t really been a box office magnet in the past, but this children’s film, supposedly exploring the capabilities of 3D technology, could become a holiday classic if it catches on with audiences the way I expect it will.
Oscar Prospects: The film has many chances at nomination, a lot of which depend on how well its received by critics. Although an unfinished version was shown to positive reaction at the New York Film Festival, the film has not screened fully for critics. Cinematography, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup and Visual Effects are all solid bets even before the full film is shown, but Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay could also enter play if audiences and critics alike love it.

My Week with Marilyn

Premise: A drama centering on the tense relationship between Marilyn Monroe and Laurence Olivier during the production of The Prince and the Showgirl
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Limited. There aren’t enough Monroe fans out there who will take a chance on this kind of movie. I expect it to perform weakly among general audiences, but well among cineastes and film enthusiasts.
Oscar Prospects: Michelle Williams is earning terrific notices in the role of iconic Marilyn Monroe, so expect her to be a strong contender. Kenneth Branagh’s also picking up solid reviews, so he could be a nominee. The film, however, isn’t playing very well with critics and will not likely make an appearance in many other categories, though Art Direction and Costume Design are always possible with a film set during that period.

The Muppets

Premise: Loading
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Terrific. Loading Thanksgiving weekend up with no less than three potential box office hits is a dangerous affair. A new Muppet adventure hasn’t been seen since 1999’s box office failure Muppets from Space, but even before then they were hardly box office draws. The film will still do good box office, but against the likes of Hugo and Arthur Christmas, the movie’s probably going to take a back seat.
Oscar Prospects: The franchise hasn’t been known for its Oscar potential, though any one of the original songs in the film could earn Oscar nominations in this year’s seemingly unpopulated category.

Piranha 3DD

Premise: From Lake Victoria to a newly-opened waterpark, the pre-historic school of hungry piranha find new prey.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. A pseudo-cult hit, the original Piranha 3D did terrible box office and against these other more popular films, an unimpressive total is sure to follow.
Oscar Prospects: None.