For our eighteenth Rundown article, we look at the final result. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Avatar: The Way of Water
• The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R) [New]
• Elvis
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Triangle of Sadness
• Women Talking

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL R) [New] (PP O) (TL R) [New]
• The Fabelmans (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: After everything is said and done, the power of critical consensus will be sorely tested this year. After several years of steamrolling through the critics groups, Everything Everywhere All at Once is the bona fide frontrunner. The problem is that most of the precursors didn’t really consider All Quiet on the Western Front until its success on the BAFTA longlists. That momentum might have served it well going into Oscar season and might propel Netflix to its first Oscar win and they weren’t even pushing it like they had been others. That said, Everything managed to win major awards from the PGA, DGA, and SAG. The Banshees of Inisherin, which used to be Everything‘s primary competition, has mostly fallen by the wayside with All Quiet taking on that position. If something other than Everything wins, it will be shocking. Asian representation in cinema looks to be the cause-célèbre propping up a film that never would have been on the Oscar radar a few years ago. Like CODA‘s momentum from last year, Everything doesn’t look to be stoppable even though it’s not even close to being the year’s best film.
Peter J. Patrick: Everything Everywhere All at Once may well receive the most first place votes but if it doesn’t get 50% plus 1 on the first run through, preferential voting will give it to the film that is rated highest on most ballots. That could well be The Banshees of Inisherin with All Quiet on the Western Front and Everything Everywhere All at Once coming in second and third respectively.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Everything Everywhere All at Once has become a juggernaut, winning all sorts of awards. It would seem that it was the overwhelming favorite to win for Best Picture, but I do wonder if the preferential ballot will hurt its chances of winning as it’s maybe just a little too weird for some of the older voters. Green Book and CODA were enjoyable films, but neither would be listed as the best made film of their respective years and the weighted ballot surely helped them win over edgier fare. EEAAO does have prestigious wins from SAG and even from the somewhat stodgy producers guild. The Screen Actors Guild awarded it the most wins ever by a film. A romp at the Spirit awards added to its visibility, so it does seem well placed to win. The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin each won a Golden Globe and All Quiet on the Western Front surprised everyone with its dominance at BAFTA. The financial success of Top Gun: Maverick puts it in consideration too. Any of these could pull an upset. Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are probably best placed to surprise, the first being such a huge box office success and the latter for showing the horrors of war while a war is raging in Europe. If any one of them starts winning more awards than predicted earlier in the ceremony, then that might predict an upset. Does that mean EEAAO will not win, probably not, but it will be a closer race than is expected. Could there be a surprise? Yes, but I do not expect that. Everything Everywhere All at Once was a well-made film, an unexpected family drama, and a surprising box office hit and thoroughly deserves to win.

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