For our fifteenth Rundown article, we look at the foundations of all successful films. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover the final component of all films that brings everything together.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (TL R) [New]
• The Fabelmans
• Tár
• Triangle of Sadness

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin (TL R) [New]
• Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O)
• Tár (PP R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: The majority of the time when The Banshees of Inisherin went head-to-head with Everything Everywhere All at Once, Banshees won. At the WGA, where there was no competition, Everything won. It’s hard to say if this dynamic will play at the Oscars. On the one hand, Banshees faded at the wrong time and although it’s done decently, it’s not quite reached a consensus on its chances. Although Martin McDonagh is well respected, his only Oscar remains for a short film he made almost twenty years ago. Further, the last time he had a film that was a Best Picture contender, Three Billboards, he managed to come up short. While I still think Banshees has a decent shot, I’m no longer certain that it can beat Everything, especially if that film’s going to steamroll this year.
Peter J. Patrick: I’d be shocked if The Banshees of Inisherin, which has won practically every other Original Screenplay award, were to lose this one.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has always felt like a race between just two competitors, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once, and it still is. For a long time, Banshees was the expected winner especially after its Golden Globe and BAFTA wins. Then the tide turned suddenly towards EEAAO with wins from the Writers Guild and the Spirit awards, though Banshees was not nominated at either. However, I do wonder if those wins will be front and center in the minds of Academy voters especially as it did so well at the Spirit Awards. It is starting to feel like EEAAO will sweep with perhaps seven Oscars. Still, except for a possible upset win by Kerry Condon as supporting actress, this seems like the last place to honor Banshees, a well-liked film with nine nominations. I would not be surprised if Banshees wins, but it feels like EEAAO is on a roll and will likely pick up the win here as well as many others.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front
• Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (TB O)
• Living
• Top Gun: Maverick
• Women Talking (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• All Quiet on the Western Front (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Women Talking (TB O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Women Talking has been a dominant screenplay this year in spite of the film’s overall lackluster awards reception. It managed only a single other Oscar nomination, which isn’t a profile in success. And the only time it competed against All Quiet on the Western Front, All Quiet triumphed. While I would like to see Sarah Polley with an Oscar, I suspect that All Quiet has the momentum in its favor in spite of this weekend’s two-handed victory for Women Talking.
Peter J. Patrick: Women Talking will likely win this with All Quiet on the Western Front its only real competition.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: From the moment nominations were announced, Women Talking was the frontrunner. Never the strongest one, but it still led the pack. The movie is nominated for best picture and this is its sole other nomination, and it is the only place they could honor the movie. A somewhat surprising win at BAFTA for All Quiet on the Western Front proved there was support for a different nominee, though Women Talking was not nominated there. But the multiple wins across the board for All Quiet showed that it had strong support in many categories. It made me wonder if the same thing might happen at the Oscars with it besting Women Talking for the screenplay award. Back-to-back wins for Women Talking from the Writers Guild and the USC Scripter puts it back firmly in voters’ minds, if not necessarily back in the lead. The two films have not been nominated against each other at any of the major awards, so it is difficult to see how they will perform on Sunday. If anything else had beaten Women Talking at WGA or the USC Scripter, then I would guess that All Quiet would be winning the Oscar. Since that did not happen, I fully expect Women Talking to win this award.

KEY: