For our ninth Rundown article, we look at the full length category that tells us about real things that happen in the world. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover two animated powerhouses.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• All That Breathes
• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (TB O)
• Fire of Love
• A House Made of Splinters
• Navalny (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TL R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PP R) [New]
• Fire of Love (WL R) [New] (TL O)
• Navalny (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: With the recent trendlines between BAFTA and PGA, Navalny has emerged as the frontrunner for the Oscars while Fire of Love and All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, all early precursor favorites, have faded and are unlikely to triumph at this juncture.
Peter J. Patrick: The topical documentary on the poisoning of Putin’s nemesis seems unbeatable at this point.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Navalny has been on a tear lately, winning the BAFTA and the Producers Guild awards, and it looks like it is headed for an Oscar too. Fire of Love, which had won the directors guild award, is still a strong contender, but the Academy has never been that fond of found footage docs. It might still win, but the one two punch of wins by Navalny has dimmed its chances. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed comes from a previous winner and seemed both topical and personal enough to be a contender, but audiences have not liked it much. All That Breathes sounds like a feel good doc, but will probably lose out to more serious ones. A House Made of Splinters is topical but has just not been mentioned as much as the others. Navalny about the Russian dissident is liked by both critics and audiences and the personal story of his bravery will resonate with the Academy. They do not always go for political documentaries, but this time I think they will and Navalny will win.

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