For our thirteenth Rundown article, the leading performers. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor & Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with an aural category that brings disparate parts together.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Austin Butler – Elvis (WL R) [New]
• Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP O) (TB O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (TL O)
• Paul Mescal – Aftersun
• Bill Nighy – Living

Runner-Up Predictions

• Austin Butler – Elvis (TB O) (TL O)
• Brendan Fraser – Whale (WL R) [New] (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: This, alongside Best Supporting Actress, is one of the toughest races to call of the year. Three actors, Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Fraser are in a tight formation heading into the Oscars. Butler has BAFTA and Globe victories on his side, Farrell as the Globe and the preponderance of precursors, and Fraser has the Critics Choice and SAG awards in his favor. You could dismiss the Critics Choice and the other precursors since there’s zero overlap with Oscar voters. The same is true of the Golden Globes, that and the fact that Fraser pretty proudly rebuffed the Globe ceremony. That leaves BAFTA and SAG and Farrell suddenly feels like an also-ran. His performance is perhaps too simple and gentle to earn the Oscar as they tend to favor loud and expressive performances. Fraser’s big detriment is that The Whale is not a Best Picture nominee and history does not favor male lead actor winners without a Best Picture citation. Butler winning BAFTA, where he wasn’t the hometown favorite that Farrell was, for a uniquely American icon, suggests that the sizable crossover contingent of Oscar voters may point towards a particular outcome. The Academy does love their flashy biopic performances. While I would support anyone but Butler winning (he has Cuba Gooding Jr. vibes, it seems like he’s on track. Of course Fraser winning would be a victory, but Farrell really needs more support.
Peter J. Patrick: A lot has happened since the Oscar nominations were announced but I think we’re back to where we started with Colin Farrell in good stead to win this based on merit. A sentimental win for Brendan Fraser could upset the applecart but this is one category in which I don’t see AMPAS aping BAFTA by giving the award to Austin Butler for Elvis.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: With only days left until Oscar night, I am still debating over who will win best actor. Only Bill Nighy and Paul Mescal have no chance of it. Colin Farrell has a career best performance in The Banshees of Inisherin and has over 50% of the precursor awards. Only one was prestigious though, the Golden Globe, and his not winning the BAFTA on semi-home turf dims his chances for the Oscar. This leaves Austin Butler’s inspired turn in Elvis and Brendan Fraser’s triumphant return in The Whale. Butler is young, and the Academy has not always favored younger men for best actor. He only has two precursors, but they are big, the Golden Globe and BAFTA. Fraser also gave a career best performance, and his emotion was right at the surface as the college professor. That passion has led him to win the Critics Choice and SAG awards. Both BAFTA and SAG are good portents for the Oscar and have been pretty good predictors in the last few years. Butler plays a real person which can often help someone and is in a best picture nominee too. But Fraser has the better back story right now with his return to a starring role after a couple of decades out of the limelight. It still feels like it could be either, and even Colin Farrell winning would not be that huge a surprise. On Oscar night we may know better if The Whale wins for Makeup & Hairstyling, then Fraser is likely to win. If it goes to Elvis, then it is probably Butler. At this point I will go with Fraser to win but may change my mind within a few days.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (PP O)
• Ana de Armas – Blonde
• Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
• Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Cate Blanchett – Tár (WL O) (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Two actors go in, one winner comes out. All precursor season, Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett have been going head-to-head and although Blanchett has come out on top most of the time, Yeoh has won several prizes, including SAG. Blanchett as BAFTA. Blanchett doesn’t exactly have hometown advantage at BAFTA, since she’s Australian, but her performance appeals more to that kind of constituency. Yeoh has sentiment and history on her side and with the seeming appeal of Everything Everywhere All at Once and its step forward for Asian representation in Hollywood, I imagine she’s probably got the edge. Blanchett, though, could still capture her third acting trophy, but I’m not optimistic of her chances.
Peter J. Patrick: They had no problem giving Daniel Day-Lewis and Frances McDormand a third Oscar in recent years and they won’t have a problem giving Cate Blanchett one either. Her only obstacle is the enormous popularity of Michelle Yeoh who everyone loves, even those who don’t love the film she’s nominated for. Either could win.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This has been a tight two-person race all season, still with no clear frontrunner. Michelle Yeoh has closely led in the precursor wins but not in the major televised awards. She has a long history in films but this if her first nomination. Cate Blanchett also has a long history in Hollywood including two previous Oscar wins. Both of their performances were hugely tied in with the success of their films. For awhile it looked like the tide was turning towards Yeoh, but after the BAFTA win it seemed more towards Blanchett. Then the SAG win made it look like Yeoh again. We will not really know until Oscar night. At this point I place Yeoh to win but would not be surprised if it goes to Blanchett.

No one else stands a chance of winning. I did not expect Michelle Williams to pull off the nom as best actress, then wondered when she did if she might prove a factor in the race. However, it has felt like she has never had traction after that. The same could be said of Andrea Riseborough and her surprise nomination. She had enough support to get a nom, but it would be even more shocking now if she won. Ana de Armas turned in a fierce portrayal in a dismal film and I just do not see the Academy honoring that film. So we are back to Yeoh and Blanchett. History favors the BAFTA winner over the SAG winner, but I still think it will be Yeoh. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

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