For our eleventh Rundown article, we look at Best Supporting Actor. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover Best Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
• Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
• LaKeith Stanfield – Judas and the Black Messiah

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (TL R) [New]
• Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami (WL O) (TB O)
• Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: It looked for most of 2020 like there might have been a modicum of suspense in this category when Judas and the Black Messiah was looking likely not to release in time. However, as summer arrived and the pandemic was in full swing, the Academy decided to extend eligibility and a film that wasn’t entirely on the radar yet came onto it and once people started seeing it, this went from minor suspense (Leslie Odom, Jr. was likely to win) to absolutely none. Daniel Kaluuya will easily win on his second nomination.
Peter J. Patrick: Some strong contenders here, but Daniel Kaluuya’s near-sweep of the precursors should bode well for him with long-in-the-shadows veteran Paul Raci a possible surprise winner.
Tripp Burton: Daniel Kaluuya is on his way to sweeping the televised awards, and should easily stroll up to whatever stage the Academy has set up for winners.
Thomas La Tourrette: Sometimes when there is not a solid frontrunner, predictions will center around one person anyway. This year it is Daniel Kaluuya for his performance in Judas and the Black Messiah. Luckily he turned in a fiery performance as Black Panther leader Fred Hampton and will deserve the Oscar. With the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Awards under his belt, he should be working on his acceptance speech. Leslie Odom Jr. had seemed the likely winner at the start of the season, but he never seemed to take off. He might still pull an upset win, though that seems unlikely now. Paul Raci so deserves his nomination for Sound of Metal, but I do not think he stands a chance. LaKeith Stanfield was a surprise nominee here as the studio was listing him as best actor, and his role seemed larger than Kaluuya’s in the same film. Even though the Academy showed him love with the nom, I doubt there will be enough to carry over to a win. If Kaluuya and Stanfield split the vote, that might allow Sacha Baron Cohen to sneak in and win for portraying Abbie Hoffman in The Trial of the Chicago 7. It would show they cared about a film that may end up going home with nothing when earlier some predicted it to be the big winner of the night. The race could go a couple of different ways, but look for Daniel Kaluuya to win.

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