For our twenty-first Rundown article, we look at the final category. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• The Father
• Judas and the Black Messiah
• Mank
• Minari
• Nomadland (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• Promising Young Woman
• Sound of Metal
• The Trial of the Chicago 7

Runner-Up Predictions

• Minari (PP R) [New]
• The Trial of the Chicago 7 (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: With all of the precursors, except tonight’s Spirit Awards, out of the way, we can probably put a pin in this category. The win at BAFTA helped alleviate some of the concern of Nomadland‘s viability at the Oscars. After all, the Screen Actors went with Trial of the Chicago 7 (Nomadland wasn’t nominated). With BAFTA and the Golden Globe for drama under its belt, little is standing in Nomadland‘s way of the Oscars unless there is voter fatigue with its season-long dominance. If so, several films could come from behind for a surprise win, most notably Minari, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Promising Young Woman, and late-breaking Judas and the Black Messiah. That said, the Academy’s recent trend of honoring indie films (five of the last ten winners were Spirit Award victors) should make it more plausible for a Nomadland victory.
Peter J. Patrick: Nomadland has been the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Picture so long that it seems almost cruel to deny it at the last minute. However, last-minute upsets do occur, especially with such a strong group of nominees as we have this year. I think Nomadland will persevere, but should it falter, I’d expect the upset winner to be either Minari or Promising Young Woman, both of which have strong support. I’d give the edge to Minari.
Tripp Burton: I don’t remember such a solid front-runner for Best Picture in a while — Nomadland has seemingly won everything in sight this season.
Thomas La Tourrette: Nomadland has been steadily racking up the precursor awards, including almost all of the major ones. It now seems destined to win the biggest award of the evening. It is not just that the consensus has built around it, but it is also hard to picture the others winning. Promising Young Woman was a twisty thriller, and perhaps my favorite film of the year, but it will have to content itself with screenplay and hopefully acting Oscars. That type of film does not normally win for best picture. Minari was a personal film about a family’s hardships trying to start a new life, but may be too small in scale to win. Mank was respected, but not loved, and I cannot see it winning. The Father did an exceptional job of putting the audience into the mind of a man suffering from dementia. Judas and the Black Messiah featured riveting performances, but did not grab me as emotionally as it should have. Sound of Metal was fantastic and made one feel like the lead character as he lost his hearing. The last three lack a best director nomination which pretty much knocks them out of the running. That said, The Trial of the Chicago 7, which also lacks a directing nomination, seems like the only film that could pull the improbable upset. It has a well respected writer/director and a large well known and exceptionally well cast ensemble. It is the type of prestige film that has done well here in the past, but I do not really see it winning. Nomadland seems to have this sewn up.

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