For our twelfth Rundown article, we look at Best Actress. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actressas well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with Best Actor.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
• Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday
• Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
• Frances McDormand – Nomadland
• Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New]
• Andra Day – The United States vs. Billie Holiday (TB O) (TL O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: I have long felt that Carey Mulligan was the one to beat for this year’s Oscars based entirely on the terrific trailer that debuted early last year. As the season has progressed, she has remained one of the most honored actresses of the year, going back and forth in terms of accolades with Frances McDormand, also nominated here. Yet, as strange occurrences have marred events with the televised awards splitting between Andra Day at the Golden Globes, Mulligan at the Critics Choice, and Viola Davis at the Screen Actors Guild, the upcoming British Academy Awards would have been a great time to reassert her position, but due to an overcorrection in terms of representation, BAFTA picked only two of this year’s major Oscar contenders, McDormand and Kirby, and gave the remaining three slots to actors who either aren’t eligible for the Oscar or who were never on the radar. Adding insult to injury, Promising Young Woman had been nominated for Best Picture, suggesting the film was genuinely well received by BAFTA voters. Depending who wins BAFTA, we would have three or four different actors taking the big awards, leaving us all in limbo for the Oscars. Before SAG, Mulligan still seemed like the best bet. McDormand already has two Oscars and her second was recent enough that they aren’t likely to honor her so quickly. Yet, Davis, who has only a single Oscar to her name, could end up pushing past Mulligan to win this year’s Oscar. Day’s Globe victory sounded like something Globe voters would historically have done if lavished with gifts. There’s no telling for sure if that happened, but it seems unlikely the Academy will recognize her for a film as poorly received as The United States vs. Billie Holiday. With the uncertainty surrounding the category now coming to a head, I am very tentatively still thinking that Mulligan will win. Ma Rainey’s couldn’t even manage a Best Picture nomination suggesting the film doesn’t have as many supporters as we would have thought and with Promising Young Woman nabbing a Best Directing citation as well as one in Best Film Editing, the love for the film is real and might well manifest itself enough to carry Mulligan over the finish line. It would be a great decision by the Academy, but I also won’t be too shocked if it doesn’t happen. Saddened, sure, but not shocked. We’ve had too many flukes this season to discount the possibility.
Peter J. Patrick: Carey Mulligan is still the most likely winner despite recent losses at the Globes and SAG and her non-nomination at BAFTA, but a win for either Viola Davis or Andra Day would not be as big a surprise as it might have been a few weeks ago.
Tripp Burton: This is the weirdest leading acting race I remember in my years of watching the Oscars, mostly because anyone could win and I wouldn’t be horribly surprised. Carey Mulligan keeps losing precursors, but she feels like the frontrunner still, especially with the love the Academy heaped towards the film. Andra Day is still lurking in the shadows, though, and SAG winner Viola Davis is a formidable threat too. I will change my mind 30 more times before the awards, but for now I’m sticking with Mulligan.
Thomas La Tourrette: This is the most difficult acting category to predict. I keep thinking that it will be Carey Mulligan’s year as she produced such a startling character in Promising Young Woman. She is a well-respected actress with one previous Oscar nomination. But then the Golden Globe went to Andra Day as Billie Holiday, which instantly put her into the best actress mix. Then Mulligan was not even nominated for the BAFTA, though I think that was more from arcane rules than any other reason. And then the Screen Actors Guild went for Viola Davis’ Ma Rainey. I still think Mulligan will win, but am not so sure anymore. Frances McDormand already has two Oscars, including one from just three years ago, so I am not sure the Academy is ready to give her a third. Viola Davis won four years ago, but might repeat as Ma Rainey. I have heard strong reports on both Andra Day and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman), though I have yet to see either film. There is not a weak choice in the group, though Kirby and perhaps McDormand are least likely to win. Perhaps the SAG win shows the love for Davis and perhaps she will win, though I still think (and hope) that Mulligan will go on to win.

KEY: