For our seventeenth Rundown article, the first things needed to make a film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay & Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover our final category.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• 1917
• Knives Out
• Marriage Story
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
• Parasite (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Marriage Story (PP R) [New]
• Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Quentin Tarantino looked like he was on his way to his third Oscar, but along the way Parasite has proven to be a formidable contender and after its win at WGA (for which Tarantino wasn’t eligible) and then again at BAFTA, Bong Joon-ho’s film looks like it may just pick up this prize as a consolation for him not getting Best Picture or Best Directing.
Peter J. Patrick: The momentum is with Parasite over Marriage Story or so it seems.
Tripp Burton: Director Bong seems primed for taking an Oscar home, and this is probably the place to recognize him.
Thomas La Tourrette: When the nominations were first announced, this looked to be going to Marriage Story. Boy have things changed in the matter of a few weeks. Noah Baumbach had all the momentum going in, and that mostly seems to have faded. Quentin Tarantino then looked likely to win his third Oscar for writing for Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood, which would have tied him for the most awards in this category with Woody Allen. He still might win, but the momentum seems to be shifting to Parasite, and it may have peaked at just the right time. It is not the typical winner here both for content and being a foreign language film, but it is the likely winner. Look for Parasite to win a close race with Once Upon a Time.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

Runner-Up Predictions

• Little Women (WL R) [New] (PP O) (TB R) [New] (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: After being roundly ignored in the lead up to the Oscars for Best Directing, there was some believe that Greta Gerwig would take this prize as a consolation. However, the precursors aren’t helping. USC went to Little Women, but both WGA and BAFTA chose Jojo Rabbit, which suggests that film is probably int he lead.
Peter J. Patrick: Jojo Rabbit seems to have overtaken Little Women as the favorite after the BAFTAs.
Tripp Burton: The WGA and BAFTA wins for Jojo Rabbit have surprised me, as I though this was the best place for Greta Gerwig to be rewarded. I still think she could win, but Jojo is the safest bet, I guess.
Thomas La Tourrette: This looks to have become a race between two films, Little Women and Jojo Rabbit. They are both inventively adapted with key parts added by their writer/directors. I would love to see a tie happen here, but that is not likely. Since The Irishman started fading and neither Joker nor The Two Popes seem likely to be in play, it came down to those two films. Little Women seemed to be picking up momentum, and many felt that this would be a good way to honor Greta Gerwig who was sadly overlooked in the directing category. When it won the USC Scripter award, it seemed set to become the certain front runner. Then things changed radically with Jojo winning both the Writers Guild and BAFTA awards, which now puts it firmly in the lead. Look for Jojo Rabbit to win a tight race with Little Women.

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