For our seventh Rundown article, we look at leading men. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the feminine counterpart

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
• Adam Driver – Marriage Story
• Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes

Runner-Up Predictions

• Adam Driver – Marriage Story (WL O) (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: The only chance awards leader Adam Driver had of toppling Joaquin Phoenix came and went at the SAG and he didn’t get the T-Shirt. If BAFTA goes another direction, the conversation could change, but don’t count on it.
Peter J. Patrick: Joaquin Phoenix’s portrayal of the paranoid schizophrenic clown in Joker is the culmination of a career in which he has played so many loners and weirdos that it’s difficult to imagine that Oscar voters would deny him a win for a role he has already won numerous precursors for. If there is an upset, then I would think that Jonathan Pryce receiving his long overdue first nomination at the age of 72 for his portrayal of Pope Francis in The Two Popes would be the one to prevail.
Tripp Burton: A graceful SAG acceptance speech has made Phoenix a sure thing here.
Thomas La Tourrette: At one point this looked like Adam Driver’s to lose, but he does look to be doing that. He was at best a weak front runner, but I am surprised at how dominant Joaquin Phoenix has become. Driver has more than twice the precursors as Phoenix, but lately it has been the Golden Globe and SAG that have gone to Phoenix, and nothing makes me think that will change with the Oscars. Phoenix lost a lot of weight to play the part, and the Academy does seem to reward performers that do that. I did not like the film and was not overwhelmed by the performance, but I do expect him to win. I may not have liked the performance but it was memorable in ways, though it would be my fifth choice to win. Leonardo DiCaprio never stood much of a chance of winning, but always seemed assured of a nomination. It was nice to see Antonio Banderas finally get a nomination after a long career. The one I was most pleased with was Jonathan Pryce’s nomination for The Two Popes. I would say it’s his best screen performance though I was not sure he would receive a nomination. I would love to see him pull an upset and win, but that seems most unlikely. If anyone but Phoenix were to win at this point, it would be Driver. He gave a nuanced performance as an egotistical director going through a messy divorce, though was equally as good in The Report. I thought he might be rewarded for a year of four very different parts, but that will not happen. Phoenix will win for playing an unlikable and awkward man who turns into the Batman enemy Joker.

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