For our fifth Rundown article, a category that honors male actors in non-leading roles. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that would be considered this one’s counterpart.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Mahershala Ali – Green Book (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Sam Sam Rockwell – Vice

Runner-Up Predictions

• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? (WL O) (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: Now that Mahershala Ali has overcome Richard E. Grant for the frontrunner mantle, I see little reason to believe he’ll fail at the Oscars even if Grant gives a brilliant, unparalleled performance.
Peter J. Patrick: Ali is poised to become a two-time Oscar winner with his immensely popular portrayal of Dr. Don Shirley in Green Book with Richard E. Grant as Melissa McCarthy’s accomplice in Can You Ever Forgive Me? his closest rival.
Tripp Burton: Mahershala Ali seems to be the solid front-runner in this category, but I’m not sure if he is a strong contender or he just doesn’t have any strong competition. I keep waiting for someone to challenge him, and no one has yet, so I guess he will roll to a second Oscar.
Thomas La Tourrette: Mahershala Ali suddenly seems to be on track to win his second Oscar in three years. He created an indelible character in Green Book, though Richard E. Grant’s drunken pal in Can You Ever Forgive Me? seems the more deserving performance. Ali is good, has great rapport with costar Viggo Mortenson, and is given a strong character arc, but it seems a little early to give him a second Oscar. Grant has been a character actor for years and certainly seems to have had a grand time with his portrayal. He would have been my choice. That said, if anyone were to beat Ali, I think it would be Sam Elliott who finally got his first nomination at age 74. He is good in the film though a win would be more of a career win for his fifty years as a character actor rather than just for this performance. Neither Adam Driver nor last year’s winner Sam Rockwell stand much of a chance of winning. With wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guilds, Ali looks unstoppable.

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