For our sixteenth Rundown article, we glimpse at the foundation of all movies. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover the most inventive of categories, creating something where nothing exists.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Favourite (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)
• First Reformed
• Green Book
• Roma
• Vice

Runner-Up Predictions

• First Reformed (PP R) [New]
• Green Book (WL R) [New] (TB O) (TL O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: There are four Best Picture nominees on this list, meaning any one of them could win. Roma is not known for its screenplay. Vice has a well regarded screenplay, but may be more of an accomplishment in directing. Green Book is making a play for Best Picture and would need a win in this category to position it towards a win. The Favourite, though, is the most celebrated screenplay of this bunch and fans of the film will surely honor it here.
Peter J. Patrick: The witty screenplay for The Favourite would seem to have the edge over the harsh screenplay for First Reformed but either could win.
Tripp Burton: Green Book has done well so far this season, and on paper could be the front-runner. But it is also mired in controversy about its writers, and this could be the best place for voters to check of The Favourite for a major win. This is a tight race!
Thomas La Tourrette: There may be enough of a backlash against Green Book for The Favourite to win. Vice will also be in the running, though the writer’s style was better suited for The Big Short. Green Book would be an easy choice as it was a fun movie. However, I think they may go for the more erudite The Favourite.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
• BlacKkKlansman (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New] (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• If Beale Street Could Talk
• A Star Is Born

Runner-Up Predictions

• Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PP O)
• If Beale Street Could Talk (WL R) [New] (TB O) (TL R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: Although it’s not the best screenplay in this bunch, BlacKkKlansman is likely to win for one reason: Spike Lee. Lee is a celebrated director who has never gotten his Academy due and this may be the best opportunity for them to reward him even if If Beale Street Could Talk is easily the better script.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easier win for Spike Lee than directing this year with Can You Ever Forgive Me? its closest rival.
Tripp Burton: It looked for a while like Barry Jenkins might win his second Oscar in this category in three years, but his film didn’t get as much Oscar love as most of us thought it would and this is Spike Lee’s chance at finally winning an Oscar.
Thomas La Tourrette: It feels like the tide is turning in favor of BlacKkKlansman over either Beale Street or Can You Ever Forgive Me? so I expect it to be the winner. I am not sure that Forgive Me was ever in the running, but Beale Street had definitely been the film to beat. It just seems to be falling out of favor. It feels like Spike Lee may finally win his first competitive Oscar.

KEY: