For our first Rundown article this year, we look at the categories that are based entirely in fact. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover a category that can help set the mood, the tone, and the emotion of each scene by evoking strains.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• Free Solo (PP R) [New]
• Hale County This Morning, This Evening
• Minding the Gap
• Of Fathers and Sons
• RBG (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Free Solo (WL O)
• Minding the Gap (PP R) [New] (TL O)
• Of Fathers and Sons (TB R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: There are any number of reasons why the nominees in this category each have a solid claim on the award. With the PGA winner, Won’t You Be My Neighbor? shockingly left off the list and Three Identical Strangers missing as well, any of these films could carry out the day. However, considering the subject matter and significance of RBG, I suspect it will likely win the day, though I wouldn’t count out any of the other films, especially Free Solo.
Peter J. Patrick: With Three Identical Strangers and Won’t You Be My Neighbor? out of the running, this becomes a hard category to predict, but I’ll go with Free Solo which is about free solo climbing Mt. Yosemite’s 3,000 ft. El Capitan wall. Minding the Gap, another inspiring documentary about three young men who bond over skateboarding would be my runner-up.
Tripp Burton: This is a category that needs some rethinking, since presumed frontrunner Won’t You Be My Neighbor? was left off the nomination list. In its place, it’s a safe bet that RBG is our front-runner. It is timely, a well-made portrait of a national icon, and giving it the award feels like an award for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg herself. Don’t count out Of Fathers and Sons, though, a very powerful film from a filmmaker who embedded himself with a family of Islamic jihadists. It is a dark horse, but if enough voters stay with it, it could win here easily.
Thomas La Tourrette: With the heavy hitter, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, out of the running, it is a very open category. One of the big money makers, RBG or Free Solo, could win, and I lean towards RBG, a valentine to the Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg. Free Solo could be a possibility, but the earlier film seems more likely. If they do not make it, I have heard good things about the smaller film Minding the Gap. Since the PGA winner is not in the mix, it really could go to any of them.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• Black Sheep
• End Game (TB O) (TL O)
• Lifeboat
• A Night at the Garden (PP R) [New]
• Period. End of Sentence. (WL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Black Sheep (TL R) [New]
• End Game (PP R) [New]
• Lifeboat (WL O)
• Period. End of Sentence. (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: Sometimes, you just have to throw a dart at the wall with this category and pick something random. Having not had a chance to see any of these shorts yet, it is based on the subject matters that I’ve made my selections and all of these titles could easily win, especially since they all cover frank and important subjects. That said, Period. End of Sentence. is the kind of short documentary that exposes the weaknesses of our world and uplifts those who attempt to rectify them. That is a powerful motivation and could carry the short to victory. Picking a runner-up is tough, but Lifeboat has the kind of story basis that could resonate with the Academy.
Peter J. Patrick: Seems to me to be a toss-up between a Nazi rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden in 1939, which is the subject of A Night at the Garden, and the end of life which is the subject of End Game, arguably the most compelling of the nominees.
Tripp Burton: This is a category that always surprises me, but two-time winner Rob Epstein has Netflix and sentiment behind him with End Game, which safely feels like a good bet. If not, look to three-time nominee Marshall Curry for the eye-opening A Night at the Garden or Period. End of Sentence.
Thomas La Tourrette: Any of these could win, and I haven’t had a chance to see any of them yet. End Game sounds like it could take it, though Black Sheep also has its admirers. Personally I like the title of Period. End of Sentence., but that may not be enough to get it into the winner’s circle.

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