For our tenth Rundown article, we look at the ladies who’ve taken the lead this year. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that pairs well with this one.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
• Glenn Close – The Wife (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Runner-Up Predictions

• Olivia Colman – The Favourite (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Career Oscars weren’t always a thing with this group as a number of young ingenues used to do better here than the veterans. However, it seems like Glenn Close is enough of a legend and Olivia Colman isn’t terribly young (the Academy does have an issue with actresses of a certain age), Close likely has this one sealed up, especially with her solo SAG victory. I don’t think a good case could be made for Lady Gaga anymore. Her film has completely tanked. Yalitza Aparicio is lucky to be nominated and Melissa McCarthy, despite giving a brilliant performance, is an also-ran.
Peter J. Patrick: With no hot star of the moment to point to, this is one of the few years in which a veteran performer has the chance to remind voters of what she is capable of. Glenn Close wins this easily.
Tripp Burton: Glenn Close has the narrative behind her and should finally get her long-missing Oscar. This is the acting award I am most certain of.
Thomas La Tourrette: At this point I would be shocked if anyone but Glenn Close won. She is a well-respected actress with a career that has spanned over 40 years and has six previous Oscar nominations without a win. That alone made her a formidable competitor. She got stellar reviews for her work in The Wife, which did not get as good of reviews as hers, though it was little seen when it debuted. At first it seemed likely that she would be passed over for more flamboyant roles in A Star Is Born or The Favourite. However, when she won the Golden Globe and gave a fiery speech, she became the surprising frontrunner. Another win from SAG cemented her firmly as the person to beat. Her acceptance speeches have probably kept her in the light and will help her land that elusive Oscar. When A Star Is Born opened, people predicted that Lady Gaga would be adding an Oscar to her numerous Grammies. She seemed the main competition until Close won at the Globes. My choice would be Olivia Colman’s Queen Anne, who created a surprisingly human and piteous character and kept it from going into caricature, which would have been easy with that part. Both she and Lady Gaga are still in the mix, but probably neither has a chance of beating Close. Melissa McCarthy’s fine work in Can You Ever Forgive Me? and newcomer Yalitza Aparicio’s work in Roma stand no chance of winning. Look for Close to win, and probably earn a standing ovation while doing it.

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