For our eleventh Rundown article, we look at the men who lead casts. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Tuesday, we’ll cover a category that’s all about shot composition (though that’s not what people judge it based on).

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Christian Bale – Vice
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate (PP R) [New]
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (WL O) (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Runner-Up Predictions

• Christian Bale – Vice (WL O) (TB R) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody (PP R) [New]

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: With the preponderance of recent awards going his way, Rami Malek has moved into the frontrunner position and it doesn’t seem like former frontrunner Christian Bale is going to overcome. Bradley Cooper could be a surprise victor, but even more likely than he is acting legend Willem Dafoe.
Peter J. Patrick: The smart money is on Rami Malek, but I have a hunch voters will see this as a chance to honor Willem Dafoe the same year as his fellow 80s breakthrough star, Glenn Close.
Tripp Burton: After winning the Globe, SAG, and BAFTA, Rami Malek is an almost assured front-runner. Bale is running a distant second.
Thomas La Tourrette: With wins at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and now BAFTA, Rami Malek looks like the person to beat for best actor. He does create a strong presence as Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody, even if the teeth are a little distracting, but I originally thought that Christian Bale was the front runner for Vice. That has certainly changed over the last month. Bale disappears into his role as Dick Cheney and is completely unrecognizable, and would have been deserving too, but I cannot object to a Malek win. Bradley Cooper had seemed like a possibility when A Star Is Born first opened. Now except for best song, that film’s chances have seemed to fade completely with time. An overdue Viggo Mortenson never seemed to catch on with his enjoyable performance in Green Book, so he will have to wait another year as well. Willem Dafoe was a surprise nominee for At Eternity’s Gate and will have to be content with his third nomination as he never stood any chance of winning. Malek should win in a close race with Bale.

KEY: