For our final Rundown article, the biggest category of them all. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race. Next year, we’ll start it all over again, but until then. Enjoy the show.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• Call Me By Your Name
• Darkest Hour
• Dunkirk
• Get Out
• Lady Bird
• Phantom Thread
• The Post
• The Shape of Water (TB O) (TL O)
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (WL R) [New] (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Get Out (TB R) [New]
• Lady Bird (PP R) [New]
• The Shape of Water (WL R) [New]
• Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: We arrive at the end. The final category of the year and probably the most contentious. The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri seem to have the most buzz built around them, so it would be easy to say they are the frontrunners, but cases could be made for Get Out, Lady Bird, and Dunkirk. The remaining four are likely out of the competition. The one factor that you must think about here is that, unlike other Oscar categories, this one is done by preferential balloting. That’s why La La Land lost last year to Moonlight. There were too many voters who were put off by La La Land, while Moonlight was not just well reviewed, but apparently well loved, picking up second and third place votes where La La Land did not. That’s why I think that Dunkirk has a chance. All four other films have a lot of detractors out there. That said, Three Billboards has steamrolled through the televised awards and even considering the preferential balloting, I suspect it will probably eke out a victory.
Peter J. Patrick: As we know, with the preferential ballot it’s not necessarily the film with the most first place votes that wins. They may have to go to a third or fourth choice before any film emerges with 50% plus one of the votes. My guess is that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri will get the most first place votes, but will it be enough or will something else win? My hunch is that Lady Bird is a lot stronger than people think and could emerge as a surprise winner, but I’m sticking with Three Billboards as my expected winner.
Tripp Burton: This is going to be an exciting race, and at this point whatever name is read off that envelope will surprise me. I’m going more traditional with my pick and guessing that PGA winner, nominations leader, and probable Best Director winner The Shape of Water will win here, but I have heard cases made for Three Billboards, Get Out, and Dunkirk that could all be feasible.
Thomas La Tourrette: Although there are nine nominees, only two have been in play for awhile, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Dunkirk had seemed a possible winner over the summer, but really seemed to fade from the race. Both Lady Bird and Get Out were talked about as potentials, but neither seemed to catch on as probable Best Picture winners. In my mind, the other four nominees never stood a chance. It really is a race between Three Billboards and The Shape of Water and it has turned into a very tight race. First the PGA went to Shape, which made it a slight frontrunner, though that has not proved the most reliable precursor award. The next day, the SAG cast award went to Three Billboards, which is a more reliable one. Then the Oscar nominations were announced and Three Billboards’ Martin McDonagh was not even nominated as Best Director. That made The Shape of Water the likely winner. Winning the Directors Guild award seemed to cement its frontrunner status. Then the BAFTA went to Three Billboards, so it really turned into a muddle. Either could win and each has the precursors to show its case. I think it will go to The Shape of Water, but will not be shocked if Three Billboards scores an upset.

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