For our sixteenth Rundown article, the categories that are required for any film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Thursday, we have our penultimate article with the categories related to dressing.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• 20th Century Women
• Hell or High Water
• La La Land (TL O)
• The Lobster
• Manchester by the Sea (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Manchester by the Sea (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: With Moonlight winning the Original Screenplay prize at the Writers Guild of America, the big question in this category is whether Manchester by the Sea can hold onto its early lead in the category or if it gets beaten down by a La La Land juggernaut.
Peter J. Patrick: Manchester by the Sea is so much better than any of the other nominees, I can’t see it losing unless they really want to give everything to La La Land.
Tripp Burton: The eternal question for a lot of this season: will La La Land sweep its way to this win, or will voters take the chance to acknowledge another contender? In this case, Kenneth Lonergan’s quiet drama is a much more traditional winner, and a chance to award one of the more acclaimed writers in the running this year. If La La Land becomes a stream roller Sunday night, though, it could include this award in a surprise the way that Lord of the Rings did a decade ago.
Thomas La Tourrette: I have spent a lot of time cogitating on this award, and I am still unsure what I think will win. Manchester by the Sea has long seemed the likely winner, as it is a serious film, and those can do well in this category. It has by far the most precursor awards as well. But I just keep thinking that this is La La Land’s year and it might sneak in for the win. La La won the Golden Globe, Manchester the BAFTA. Neither won the Writers Guild, so there is no set frontrunner. I do not think that the other three nominees stand much of a chance, even though Hell or High Water has won more precursors than La La Land. I long thought that Manchester would win, but I am rethinking that and I expect that the lighter La La Land may waltz away with the Oscar after all.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Arrival
• Fences
• Hidden Fences
• Lion
• Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Arrival (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• Hidden Fences (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: The Writers Guild of America liked the screenplay so much that it gave Moonlight the Original Screenplay trophy. It was nominated in adapted at the Oscars. That Moonlight is so well liked and doesn’t have a chance at many places other than Supporting Actor, voters may give the film recognition here as well. It also won the USC Scripter prize, one of the more accurate recent precursors.
Peter J. Patrick: Moonlight is the presumed favorite, but look out for popular hit, Hidden Figures.
Tripp Burton: This is a hard category to predict mostly because the presumed frontrunner, Moonlight, has been nominated as an original screenplay for most of the precursors. It feels like the sort of film — critically praised, artistically ambitious, well-nominated but perhaps too difficult to win Best Picture — that wins a screenplay prize as a consolation for its writer-director. In Moonlight‘s absence, Arrival took the WGA award this weekend, so it has to be seen as the runner-up.
Thomas La Tourrette: Moonlight seems to have this one down, even though it is roughly tied for the number of precursor wins with Arrival. However, it has wins from both the Writers Guild and the USC Scripter Awards, even though Arrival has a Writers Guild win as well. It probably will come down to just these two films, even though there is strong work from Fences, Hidden Figures, and Lion. For a long time I assumed that Fences would be the frontrunner as the Academy would like to honor the late August Wilson who also wrote the Tony and Pulitzer Prize-winning play it was based on. It never seemed to catch on and it did not win any precursor awards. Arrival is starting to look like the major bridesmaid at this year’s Oscars and it may not take home any awards despite eight nominations. This is probably its best chance to win, but I think the Oscar will go to Moonlight.

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