For our seventh Rundown article, we look at the only category with mandatory subtitles for all the nominee. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Foreign Language Film as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll tackle the penultimate acting category.

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner Predictions

• Land of Mine – Denmark
• A Man Called Ove – Sweden
• The Salesman – Iran (TB R) [New]
• Tanna – Australia
• Toni Erdmann – Germany (WL O) (PP O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Land of Mine – Denmark (WL R) [New]
• A Man Called Ove – Sweden (TB O)
• The Salesman – Iran (PP R) [New] (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: Although Toni Erdmann is the most honored film in this category, it’s far from certain. Academy’s voters tend to go for more sentimental fare when picking this award and this esoteric comedy might be outside of their taste range. While I think A Man Called Ove could be the spoiler due to its crowd-pleasing nature, the more dramatic Land of Mine has a strong potential, as does The Salesman, which might benefit from the political fallout over the Muslim ban that might keep its director Asghar Farhadi from attending the ceremony. He’s a prior winner, but the Academy wouldn’t care.
Peter J. Patrick: The multi-award-winning Toni Erdmann from Germany would seem to be the frontrunner, but watch out for Iran’s The Salesman which could serve as a protest winner against the Trump administration’s anti-immigrant policies.
Tripp Burton: A few weeks ago I thought this was a guaranteed win for critics darling Toni Erdmann, which seemed set to sweep the category through awards season. Then the Globes overlooked it in favor of Elle (which is not nominated here), and then Donald Trump put a travel ban on Iranians entering America. The press that erupted that Ashgar Farhadi, whose A Separation won this award a few years ago, would not be able to attend the Oscars became more mainstream than I ever remember a nominee in this category becoming. At this point, a vote for The Salesman is more than a vote for a great filmmaker, or a supposedly excellent film (I haven’t seen it yet), but it is a vote of protest against the Trump administration, and that should make for an interesting political statement come Oscar night.
Thomas La Tourrette: Having not seen any of these, I feel at a bit of a disadvantage trying to choose a winner. Toni Erdmann from Germany seems to have been the frontrunner and it will probably go on to win. The only person I know who has seen it normally loves German films, but she really disliked this one. However I have not heard of any film that seems likely to knock it out of the winning spot. The Salesman has gotten very strong reviews and an earlier film by the director won this award but this one has never gotten the traction of A Separation. What might have a slightly better chance of pulling an upset would be the earlier crowd favorite, A Man Called Ove. This was the only foreign language film that picked up any other nominations. Because of its early release it was seen by more people originally. It also has a higher rating by the public on Rotten Tomatoes. However, Toni Erdmann seems to have the momentum right now and I expect it to go on to win the Oscar.

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