For our thirteenth Rundown article, it’s all about control. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Director as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off our final Rundown week with a category that creates things out of nothing.

Best Visual Effects

Winner Predictions

• Damien Chazelle – La La Land (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
• Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
• Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Runner-Up Predictions

• Barry Jenkins – Moonlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

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Wesley Lovell: The Directors Guild of America (DGA) has made their decision and among guilds, it is the cream of the prediction crop. They are so accurate that they have at times better predicted Best Picture than the Producers Guild of America has. Damien Chazelle claimed the DGA prize this year and there is no reason to believe he won’t take home the Oscar.
Peter J. Patrick: Any of the four first time nominees would be an excellent choice, but Damien Chazelle cannot be stopped. Not that anyone would want to stop him, but if they did I think Jenkins, Lonergan, and Villaneuve would line up behind him in that order. Only former winner Mel Gibson seems out of the running.
Tripp Burton: With the DGA, Golden Globe, and BAFTA under his belt, and his film poised to sweep, it is hard to imagine Damien Chazelle losing this award.
Thomas La Tourrette: Damien Chazelle and Barry Jenkins have split the lion’s share of the precursor awards so far. Chazelle has the edge with wins from the Directors Guild, Golden Globes, and BAFTA for his work on La La Land. He should easily win here. The more personal story of Moonlight will connect with some, but Jenkins is more likely to win the Oscar for his screenplay of Moonlight than he is for directing it. None of the others will be in the mix to win. Chazelle will be honored for his delightful homage to the movie musicals, as well as his daring to put on a full blown romantic film. He will become the youngest director ever to win, and he deserves it with this charmer of a film.

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