For our fifth Rundown article, facts make up an important part of these categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Documentary Feature and Best Documentary Short Subject as well as general commentary about the race. Wednesday, we’ll cover a category where composition is most important.

Best Documentary Feature

Winner Predictions

• 13th
• Fire at Sea
• I Am Not Your Negro
• Life, Animated
• O.J.: Made in America (WL O) (PP O) (TB R) [New] (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• 13th (WL O) (TB R) [New] (TL O)
• I Am Not Your Negro (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Other than because of its length, I see little reason not to believe O.J.: Made in America won’t win. The other documentaries all have shots, but this seems like a slam dunk win for the oft-celebrated feature.
Peter J. Patrick: There’s now doubt that the behemoth 8-hour documentary, O.J.: Made in America is not going to win this. In any other year, either I Am Not Your Negro or 13th would take this easily with I Am Not Your Negro having a slightly better chance.
Tripp Burton: With its DGA win this weekend, O.J.: Made in America has continued to plow through the competition this season and it will probably end with an Oscar win. The film is a masterwork, and deserving of the award, but it is also a little sad that so many other documentaries are having to play second fiddle this year. If O.J. doesn’t win, if only because of the scariness of its 7-plus-hour length or the debate as to whether it can really be considered a film instead of a TV miniseries, look for Ava DuVernay to reach the stage for her similarly themed look at race in America, 13th. Unless voters are charmed by the touching story of Life, Animated, or the timely refugee topic of Fire at Sea, or the racially charged I Am Not Your Negro. This category is loaded.
Thomas La Tourrette: The almost eight-hour O.J. documentary is not only the longest film ever nominated for an Oscar, but it is by far the most talked about nominee in this category this year. Although originally made as a television documentary, it has taken off in ways that most documentaries never do. The length may put off some voters who do not want to sit through something that long, but it would be surprising if anything else won. Its closest competition would come from Ava DuVernay’s 13th which deals with how incarceration of black men may be derailing the 13th amendment which outlawed slavery. It definitely is topical this year, but I still do not see it winning unless the length of O.J. makes voters go for a shorter film. I am not sure if any of the other films will really be in competition, so O.J.: Made in America should take home the Oscar.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner Predictions

• 4.1 Miles
• Extremis (PP O) (TL R) [New]
• Joe’s Violin
• Watani: My Homeland
• The White Helmets (WL O) (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• 4.1 Miles (WL O) (TB O)
• Joe’s Violin (TL O)
• The White Helmets (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Based solely on subject matter, it’s hard to imagine The White Helmets not winning; however, any other nominee could surprise.
Peter J. Patrick: Purely guesswork on my part. I know nothing about these short subjects.
Tripp Burton: The profile of Netflix’s The White Helmets has grown in the last week, not only as Syria has reentered our news cycle but as we have heard that the filmmakers might have trouble making it into America for the Oscars. This should bring the film’s high profile even higher and should make it the frontrunner, not only as a political statement but as a reward for a powerful film. 4.1 Miles and Watani, two different looks at Syrians, could also stand up here, and I expect one of those three powerful documentaries to win. Unfortunately, that leaves my favorite, Joe’s Violin, off to the side. It is just a little too small and slight for today’s landscape.
Thomas La Tourrette: The short films have not been released yet, so I have not had a chance to see these. Going from quick descriptions of them, I could see almost any of them winning. Extremis deals with end of life care following doctors, families and patients. It seems like the type that could win. Joe’s Violin about a Holocaust survivor donating his beloved violin to an instrument drive where it goes to a 12-year-old is the type of heartwarming film that has often won in the past, so it could easily win too. My choices may change once I see all of them, but these seem like the likeliest winners.

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