For our sixth Rundown article, we look at the supporting men. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that seems like a foregone conclusion, but could generate some fascinating results if it doesn’t go where expected

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
• Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
• Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
• Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: He’s run the gamut of precursors, more than almost anyone else other than Cate Blanchett. He may not do a lot of acting, but Jared Leto seems poised to take home the gold on Oscar Night. His competition is admirable, but none of them really seem like upset candidates. Bradley Cooper could win based on the love of his film, but I suspect they’ll want to wait until he gives a more dramatic performance to give him the big one, and likely that will be in the lead category. Jonah is now a two-time Oscar nominee and, like Cooper, no one really expected that to happen. Still, if Hill wins, it will be in support, so fans of The Wolf of Wall Street might pick here to give it a boost. Barkhad Abdi is a one-time nominee and will remain such. Yet, if I had to peg one surprise usurper, it’s Michael Fassbender whose gained a lot of respect for his performances and 12 Years a Slave could be bigger than we expect, taking him along for the ride. I still feel he’s running a distant second and I haven’t seen him doing a lot of campaigning, so I doubt that will change in the foreseeable future.
Peter J. Patrick: Fassbender was the early favorite, but Leto has all but swept the precursors. There’s no reason to think Oscar won’t follow suit, though either would be an excellent choice. For first-time actor Barhhad Abdi, the nomination is his reward. For Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill, better luck next time.
Tripp Burton: I have been a little surprised by just how much of a steam roller Jared Leto has become this awards season, and at this point he may be the most locked in of the four eventual acting winners. He has all the precursors he needs, he has been playing the game very well (especially after a highly criticized Golden Globes speech) and is in a movie that was a surprising Academy favorite. If anyone is going to unseat him, it would probably be Michael Fassbender, but that is only if 12 Years a Slave gains a lot of its momentum back.

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