For our sixteenth and final Rundown article, we cover the big one. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Picture as well as general commentary about the race.

Best Picture

Winner Predictions

• 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O)
• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity (TB R) [New]
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Runner-Up Predictions

• 12 Years a Slave (TB R) [New]
• Gravity (WL O) (PP O)

(color and symbol key at bottom of page)

Wesley Lovell: As I’ve mentioned before, there’s an old adage: “Don’t Bet the Split.” This means that the Academy has so frequently given Best Picture and Best Director to the same film that even when splits are widely predicted, they rarely happen. That pairs with the tradition of the Directors Guild of America to line up with the Oscar for Best Director (and in tandem Best Picture) more often than any other precursor in the history of precursors. That makes Alfonso Cuaron the key contender for Best Director. Which leaves us with a problem. 12 Years a Slave has long been predicted as the potential winner and Cuaron has been listed as the director with the most potential for the director prize. So, DGA says go Cuaron. “Don’t Bet the Split” would then suggest to predict Gravity for Best Picture. Then BAFTA split the awards, confirming the prevailing wisdom. Yet, those of us who’ve been at this game for awhile, know that it seems completely out of the ordinary. So, what to do? You have to go with your gut. While Gravity is a terrific film, it isn’t really about anything. It’s about survival, but if you want a survival film, 12 Years a Slave is the ultimate: living through slavery in the Antebellum South. So, while it goes against years of observation, I’m predicting the split.
Peter J. Patrick: 12 Years a Slave is in the tradition of great literary adaptations, social conscience and message films that typically win Best Picture over more popular entertainments of the day. Its a more likely winner than the popular Gravity would seem to be, but either is possible in a very close race.
Tripp Burton: We really won’t have a good idea of how this race is shaping until the envelope is opened, but I am going to be traditional and say that if Gravity wins Best Director, it’s winning Best Picture too. Gravity is a blockbuster that also managed to be a critical favorite, and that combination should lead it to the top prize here.

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