For our eleventh Rundown article, we look at the second of the lead acting categories. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with two categories that deal with filmmaking form.

Best Actress

Winner Predictions

• Amy Adams – American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Sandra Bullock – Gravity
• Judi Dench – Philomena
• Meryl Streep – August: Osage County

Runner-Up Predictions

• Amy Adams – American Hustle (WL O) (TB R) [New]
• Judi Dench – Philomena (PP O)

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Wesley Lovell: The ill-timed allegations against Woody Allen by his daughter Dylan Farrow, has generated a lot of press, leading some to suggest that Cate Blanchett’s in trouble. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Blanchett has been dominating the precursors, more so than any other actor. Were she to lose, it would undoubtedly be attributed to the Allen-Farrow flap, but I just don’t see that happening. Who would benefit in such a case? Of her fellow nominees, only Amy Adams hasn’t won before. Sandra Bullock could get swept into a Gravity rush for Best Picture and if she won, you might as well bet her film wins. Yet, I don’t see her winning a second Oscar for this film. Streep just won her third after waiting two decades, so I doubt she’ll get a fourth for a film no one really likes. Dench could easily win a second award and with a role like Philomena, I wouldn’t be surprised, but Amy Adams doesn’t have an Oscar yet and she’s got several nominations under her belt. This could be voters’ chance to give her won.
Peter J. Patrick: Various bloggers would have you believe that if front-runner Blanchett doesn’t win, five time nominee Amy Adams will, but I have a hunch that if there is an upset the recipient will be Dench, Blanchett’s one-time co-star, the other previous supporting actress winner in the race.
Tripp Burton: Cate Blanchett has proved herself to be the lock of the season, and she should easily pick up her first Lead trophy on Oscar night. I don’t think she will be hurt by the Woody Allen controversy, nor will she burn out before ballots are due. She’s the strongest bet we have all night.

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