For our fourteenth Rundown article, we have a glimpse at the first building blocks of a successful film. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll cover two unalterably-tied creative categories.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Amour
• Django Unchained (R) [New] (R) [New]
• Flight
• Moonrise Kingdom
• Zero Dark Thirty (R) [New]

Runner-Up Predictions

• Amour (R) [New] (R) [New] (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Django Unchained, the film that has nabbed a number of precursors and enters the race as the favorite, didn’t earn a Writers Guild of America nomination because of Tarantino’s lack of desire to join the WGA over rather pointless issues. So, Zero Dark Thirty came out with a trophy that might bolster its chances with the Academy, but probably not enough. Of course Amour also wasn’t WGA eligible and it could easily take this prize. It’s going to be a tough call, but I’m leaning towards Tarantino with an Haneke chaser.
Peter J. Patrick: Early on I would have said this was Zero Dark Thirty‘s to lose, but with all the controversy surrounding the film, Oscar may want to go in a different direction – or not. This could conceivably go to any of the nominees except perhaps Flight which has a great opening and a great ending but gets a bit lost in the middle.
Tripp Burton: Yes, Zero Dark Thirty won the WGA award last weekend; however, a lot of the major contenders here weren’t eligible, so the category was a little skewed. Quentin Tarantino has been the surprising winner in this category throughout the season, and I think the Academy will award him almost 20 years after his first Oscar, but if they really want to give Michael Haneke something, this could be the place to do it.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner Predictions

• Argo (R) [New] (R)
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln (O)
• Silver Linings Playbook

Runner-Up Predictions

• Argo (O)
• Lincoln (R) [New]
• Silver Linings Playbook (O)

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Wesley Lovell: Before the WGA on Sunday, I would have said the competition came down between BAFTA winner Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln, which won a boatload of precursors. While both could still triumph, the WGA victory for Argo has pushed it into the lead for the award to go with its almost certain Best Picture victory. I would have thought Kushner’s script would be the one to challenge it, but it seems more likely that David O. Russell could be the true competitor.
Peter J. Patrick: Lincoln was the most literate, Argo the wittiest. Will they go for literacy or wit? I’m suspecting literacy, but wouldn’t be surprised if they voted for wit just to be able to give Argo more than one Oscar.
Tripp Burton: I am still not convinced that the beloved Tony Kushner is completely out of this, but he hasn’t won a single major precursor in months and Argo has pulled ahead in this category with full steam. It is going to be a tight race, but I think this is one category that is Argo‘s to lose.

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