So, we are at the point of the year where all the major film festivals are over, and so most of the major Oscar contenders have been seen, at least by some film critics and insiders. In fact, there only seem to be three films that no one has yet seen: James Cameron’s Avatar, Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones and Rob Marshall’s Nine. All three are films by men who have brought us Best Picture winners, and all three seem to be on track to a Best Picture nomination. Why?

Much has already been bandied around by those on this blog (and everywhere else) about the change to 10 Best Picture nominees. Still, no one seems to know exactly how that change will play out in January. But with these three films, the expansion to 10 films should push them over the limit, barring catastrophic reviews or disastrous box office. Here is why: With 10 films going up for the big prize, it only takes half of the votes (or less) to push a film over. I have already talked earlier in this blog about how that works, and how that may affect the race.

What happens with these three films is they will spend the next month being proclaimed as strong contenders (and probably the three frontrunners) without anyone really seeing them. Some critics may start to see them by the end of this month (in order to factor into award voting), but I will guess that most Academy voters won’t get to see the films until mid-December. This will happen after the Golden Globes and the Golden Satellites announce their nominees. These awards tend to see themselves as prognosticators of the Oscars (especially the Satellites), and will want to push what they see as the frontrunners, so I bet all three of these films lead the nominations. By the time people get around to seeing them, they have in their heads that these are the films that people will love this year, and unless they are completely put off by them, will follow suit.
This plan has backfired in the past (Cold Mountain one example), but I guarantee that had 2003 had 10 nominees that film would have been sixth or seventh in voting. There is too much room in the lists, and these films should sneak in. They all feel like Oscar nominees: a space epic by the director of the most awarded film in Oscar history (Avatar), an adaption of a beloved, best-selling book by the director of the most awarded film in Oscar history (The Lovely Bones) and an adaptation of an award-winning Broadway musical in the vein of the director’s last Best Picture winning film (Nine). They feel like Best Picture nominees, they look like Best Picture nominees, people say they will be Best Picture nominees and there are more Best Picture nominee slots in 60 years, so why won’t they be Best Picture nominees? You tell me.