The National Board of Review is always the first major precursor to release their results. This year, they’re mostly all over the board, recognizing several different films with Licorice Pizza coming out on top. What many won’t tell you is that getting an award from NBR might help you get an Oscar nomination, but it’s likely that you’ll go home empty-handed. Best Picture is one of the best categories with most of their winners going on to get a Best Picture nomination. However, in the last 25 years, only three films have won Best Picture at the Oscars as well: 1999’s American Beauty, 2007’s No Country for Old Men, and 2018’s Green Book.

For Best Director, the record is even more spotty with only 16 of the last 25 Best Director winners carrying over the Oscars. Those odds have further diminished more recently with only 4 of the last 10 earning Oscar nominations. It’s even worse when looking at just the winners. Martin Scorsese was the last to accomplish the feat for 2006’s The Departed. The total back to 25 years is 4 also including Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain, Steven Soderbergh’s Traffic, and Joel Coen’s Fargo.

In Best Actor, Will Smith has to be sighing a breath of relief with his win here as an impressive 21 of 27 winners at the NBR went on to Oscar nominations. The reason for 27 is that there were two ties in 2014 and 2009 with the former matching 1 for 2 and the latter matching 2 for 2. As to the winners, well, he’s just going to have to practice his “it’s a pleasure just to be nominated” speech because only 6 of the 27 NBR winners also won the Oscar with Casey Affleck in 2016, Forest Whitaker in 2006, Philip Seymour Hoffman in 2005, Jamie Foxx in 2004, Sean Penn in 2003, and Jack Nicholson in 1997 the only ones. It’s been 5 years since the last, which was the first in a decade, so he shouldn’t be making space on the mantle this year.

In Best Actress, 22 of the 25 winners have scored Oscar nominations, which is a positive sign for Rachel Zegler. What’s not likely is a win with only 7 of the last 25 carrying over to the Oscars.

The rest of the group’s citations are similar, so I’ll leave at this. While they sometimes have a solid nominating track record, their winner-matching record is abysmal.

Award Tallies

(4) Licorice Pizza
(2) A Hero, King Richard, The Tragedy of Macbeth

The Awards

Best Picture

Licorice Pizza

Best Animated Film

Encanto

Best Director

Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Actor

Will Smith – King Richard

Best Actress

Rachel Zegler – West Side Story

Best Supporting Actor

Ciaran Hinds – Belfast

Best Supporting Actress

Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Best Original Screenplay

A Hero

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Cinematography

The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Foreign Film

A Hero

Best Documentary

Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Freedom of Expression

Flee

Best Directorial Debut

Pig – Michael Sarnoski

Best Ensemble

The Harder They Fall

Best Breakthrough Performance

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
Cooper Hoffman – Licorice Pizza

Top Films

• Belfast
• Don’t Look Up
• Dune
• King Richard
• The Last Duel
• Licorice Piza
• Nightmare Alley
• Red Rocket
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

Top Independent Films

• The Card Counter
• C’mon C’mon
• CODA
• The Green Knight
• Holler
• Jockey
• Old Henry
• Pig
• Shiva Baby
• The Souvenir, Part II

Top Foreign Films

• Benedetta
• A Hero
• Lamb
• Lingui, The Sacred Bonds
• Titane
• The Worst Person in the World

Top Documentaries

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• The Rescue
• Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
• Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

National Board of Review Data

Year Founded: December 24, 1908
First Awards: 1929 (93)