Golden Globe voters (the Hollywood Foreign Press Association) are a quirky bunch. They always include contenders that the Academy will never recognize, especially in the Comedy/Musical category, but looking over the list, Oscar contenders are fairly well spread out, as are non-contenders. Simon Helberg doesn’t have a chance in the supporting category at the Oscars, but all of the rest of the nominees in those categories are already key competitors. You can replace Viggo Mortensen with Ryan Gosling from the Comedy/Musical category and you have most of the people we consider competitive. The Best Actress side benefits from having two categories here as all five drama actresses and three of the comedy/musical set are competing for the five Oscar slots.

In Best Director, you may either have a trend starting or a sign of the star-happy HFPA picking people friendly to its tastes and interests. Mel Gibson won the Golden Globe in 1995 for Braveheart. It was the only precursor outside of the Broadcast Film Critics Association to give any consideration to the director who ended up winning the Oscar. So, either this group is prescient or they are excited about nominating a former big name like Gibson. Since they also nominated Tom Ford, that thought casts doubt on the possibility, but looking over their list and their lack of love for films like Loving or Jackie, it may not be so shocking. Of course, Lion also got blanked in that category suggesting Harvey Weinstein might not have the clout he once had.

A lot of these will go on to nominations from the Academy. How accurate they are is in dispute, but there’s little doubt in my mind at this juncture that they will have a high level of accuracy this year.

Nominations Tallies

(7) La La Land
(6) Moonlight
(5) Manchester by the Sea
(4) Florence Foster Jenkins, Lion
(3) Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Nocturnal Animals

The Nominations

Best Picture, Drama

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Picture, Comedy/Musical

20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Best Picture, Animated

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

Best Director

Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Tom Ford – Nocturnal Aniamls
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor, Drama

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton – Loving
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences

Best Actress, Drama

Amy Adams – Arrival
Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie

Best Actor, Comedy/Musical

Colin Farrell – The Lobster
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill – War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply
Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg – Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel – Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Best Screenplay

Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Score

Arrival
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight

Best Song

“Can’t Stop the Feeling” – Trolls
“City of Stars” – La La Land
“Faith” – Sing
“Gold” – Gold
“How Far I’ll Go” – Moana

Best Foreign Language Film

Divines – France
Elle – France
Neruda – Chile
The Salesman – Iran/France
Toni Erdmann – Germany

Golden Globe Data

Year Founded: 1943
First Awards: 1943 (74)