Precursor: 66th Writers Guild Nominations (2013)

First, let’s look at the Oscar contenders that weren’t eligible due to archaic rules that prohibit films written outside of guild contracts from being eligibile. 12 Years a Slave, Fruitvale Station, Philomena, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, In a World…, The World’s End, Blue Is the Warmest Color, The Past, any animated film (Frozen, Monsters University, The Wind Rises), Short Term 12. Those are just the films I could locate that were ineligible. As you can see, that’s a lot out of contention. Noteworthy, though is that Inside Llewyn Davis, which was apparently eligible, is not on the list. In its place is Dallas Buyers Club, whose Best Picture nominations chances are growing exponentially each day.

As for what else was ineligible? Please chime in if you know more films that were ruled out. Since the above list includes three of Harvey Weinstein’s films, but one other (August: Osage County) was eligible, I have no idea if Lee Daniels’ The Butler was eligible or not. Don’t expect this list to very readily mirror the eventual Oscar list. My guess is that four of these five Original screenplays will make it through whereas three or four of the Adapted will be there. 12 Years a Slave and Philomena are likely to replace Lone Survivor and probably Captain Phillips. Inside Llewyn Davis could replace Dallas Buyers Club, but none of the others seem that vulnerable.