Precursor: 32nd USC Scripter Nominations (2018)

If you look at the Adapted Screenplay contenders, you would only find two of these films as likely nominees. The Death of Stalin has shown up enough times to be considered a threat, but the Academy doesn’t like comic book movies that much and definitely don’t consider the screenplays worthy since none have ever been nominated by the Academy and only one graphic novel (American Splendor) has despite critical acclaim for the likes of Road to Perdition and A History of Violence.

The Writers Guild (WGA) has nominated a few, including Splendor, History, Black Panther, Logan, Deadpool, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Dark Knight, Superman. They are much more accepting of such things, but the Academy better mirrors the scripters. Black Panther is the second film based on a graphic novel or comic book to be nominated with History of Violence the former. This is the first based solely on a comic book to get the nomination. That’s a big deal and could mirror to the Oscars based on the USC Libraries’ history in predicting. That said, Leave No Trace is easily the most vulnerable followed by Panther and Stalin.

As to the Oscar contenders hurt by these selections, look no further than BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born, Widows, and First Man. The good news for A Star Is Born and Widows is that USC Scripter, unlike the Academy and the WGA, doesn’t care for non-literary adaptations. A Star Is Born is based on three prior film screenplays while Widows is based on a television show. BlacKkKlansman and First Man, however, have no excuses. That said, at least Spike Lee’s film has a WGA nomination. Damien Chazelle’s does not, meaning that A Star Is Born and BlacKkKlansman are on shaky, but not insurmountable footing to still make it into the Oscar race.