We had three films release this past weekend with the potential for Oscar nominations.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

No one really thought when the first Black Panther film was in production that it would not only become the first MCU film to cross the $700 million threshold. Nor did they even contemplate its Oscar chances since comic book adaptations had largely been ignored by the Academy. Yet, critics (including me) were enthusiastic about the film and it started showing up on several best of lists and become such a fixture during Oscar season that the Academy couldn’t ignore it. In the end, it took scored 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, and won 3, more than any comic book adaptation to date.

Now, we’re four years later and the thrill has worn off, which makes the question: do we underestimate Black Panther: Wakanda Forever? Do so at your own risk, but I wouldn’t qualify it as a contender outside of the craft categories this time. While the “glass” ceiling for comic book movies has been broken and Joker followed Black Panther through, there’s no indicating that this will be a trend. In spite of critical and box office success for the latest Spider-Man film, it still only managed a few below the line nominations. The same is likely for Wakanda Forever. I could see it doing quite well four or five nominations, but the highest I think it can get in the non-craft categories is Best Supporting Actress based on the acclaim Angela Bassett has been getting. That said, don’t count on it making it that high.

The Fabelmans

A film that you should bank on is The Fabelmans. There’s only one director in Hollywood who can claim Oscar nominations just by showing up. Steven Spielberg’s history with the Oscars is legendary and he’s easily one of the most honored filmmakers in history. Combine that with the personal nature of this particular film, loosely based on his own life, and you have a picture that seems tailor made for Oscar consideration. Critics have thankfully backed the film up with their praise, which puts it in prime position for several nominations, but wins may be difficult to come by.

Unlike West Side Story, The Fabelmans seems to be taking a more steady path towards the Oscars, including the audience award at Toronto Film Festival. That means it is likely to be a Best Picture nominee, but we didn’t need TIFF to tell us that. Best Picture is certain as is Best Directing. You don’t make a film as personal as that and not get a nomination. From there, we can expect the usual litany of selections like Original Screenplay, Original Score, Film Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, and Sound. I really don’t see either Makeup & Hairstyling or Visual Effects as promising for this film.

Now for the acting categories. The boy who plays the young Spielberg, Gabriel LaBelle is unlikely to gain traction, which would allow Paul Dano as his dad to move to Best Actor. That said, I suspect Dano will stay in support. Yet, Michelle Williams, the main female character in the film, is being pushed for lead. Lead is fierce, and while Williams feels overdue, the likelihood of her scoring the Oscar for Best Actress is small. Had she been campaigned in support, she might well be an Oscar winner this time next year. Williams would also have been certain for a nomination in support, but is less assured in lead.

The Son

Writer and director Florian Zeller began his film career with The Father. It was the first of his plays that he had adapted to the screen himself rather than allowing others to do it for him. With the material and two incredibly strong actors in tow, Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman, he hit gold. Critics praised the film and the Academy stood up and took notice. While it wasn’t certain to pull out all the nominations it did, the film picked up six total nominations, including Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Production Design, and two acting citations for Hopkins in lead and Colman in support. Although it went in as the underdog, it played well enough with older voters that Anthony Hopkins took a surprise Best Actor award while the film won Zeller the screenwriting honor.

Of course, with that success, it’s difficult not to think of his latest film, The Son, in the same terms. Yet, sophomore efforts rarely live up to the expectation of auspicious debuts and sometimes those freshman efforts are flukes rather than a display of actual skill. The film has gotten mediocre reviews at best with only Hugh Jackman being singled out for any measure of praise, which means the film isn’t likely to be a similar success to its predecessor. Jackman is in the hunt for a nomination and it sounds like it’s probably going to come his way, but the rest of the film’s chances bit the dust when its 46% rotten rating at Rotten Tomatoes and its 60 at MetaCritic.