Every month, we’ll take a look at the films that have shown the right kind of potential to eventually become Oscar nominees. On the last Monday of the month, we’ll look at what films in the next month will be playing for Oscar’s attention. On the first Monday of every month, we’ll look at how the prior month’s Oscar players succeed or failed and why. During Oscar season, starting in November, this will become a weekly feature where we look back at the prior week and ahead at the coming week.

Since this is our first post, we’ll look back at not just March’s potential contenders, but also those from January, February, and March. Next week, we’ll look forecast April.

Please also note that due to some site issues over the last month, this post is going live much later than anticipated. This may result in some commentary feeling a shade out of date.

Wesley Lovell’s Thoughts

Oscar season seldom begins in earnest until September, but there have been more than a few early-year releases that have gone on to Oscar glory, which includes last year’s Best Picture winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once. So, we look at these early months for any signs of early favorites. So far, 2022 has not exactly produced an array of major contenders. I’m not going into much details on some of these, but I’ll break them down into categories.

The first grouping is critically acclaimed films that will need to hold on for 8 or 9 months to stay in the conversation, which may be easier said than done for many of them. This includes January’s Alcarràs, Shin Ultraman, Mars One, After Love, and Bruiser. Each scored 80 or better on MetaCritic. February featured The Blue Caftan, Full Time, Huesera: The Bone Woman, Godland, and Linoleum. Then March brought along A Thousand and One, Walk Up, Stonewalling, Rye Lane, and Rimini. Of these, the only ones that genuinely sounded like films that could play well with Oscar were The Blue Caftan, Rye Lane, and A Thousand and One.

The next group are films that garnered a smattering of buzz, but didn’t get the level of support one would expect from a potential Oscar contender. These include January releases When You Finish Saving the World, Infinity Pool, and The Man in the Basement; February Releases Of an Age, Emily, My Happy Ending, Juniper, and God’s Time; and March releases The Forger, Inside, A Good Person, Smoking Causes Coughing.

Next, we have the blockbuster wannabes whose hopes in major categories are minimal, but craft categories are certainly possible. There were no such releases in January and Ant-Man and the Was: Quantumania were the only ones in February. March had three: 65, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves. What hurts almost all of these is either the lackluster critical reception or the unimpressive box office performances or both. Creed III is an interesting case as it wasn’t going to be a major craft player, but has the pedigree to a top category contender. It’s box office helped, but being a sequel likely hurt it more than anything.

There were also a couple of films that had high profile stars that have the kinds of profiles that might have landed them Oscar consideration in years gone by, but were in and out of theaters so fast they likely have no chance. There were two of these. Marlowe in February and The Lost King in March. The former is a neo-noir that has lots of craft citation potential, but barely made a blip on the radar while The Lost King is one of those plucky British comedy/dramas that could have been whipped into an Oscar contender if it were a bigger box office success than it ultimately ended up being.

Finally, there are the generally acclaimed films that don’t seem like they would be in Oscar’s wheelhouse. In January, it was well regarded horror films M3GAN and Skinamarink. The latter seems more likely to make an impression on Oscar voters, but neither really seem like contenders. February had the well liked Cocaine Bear, which is so far outside of the Academy’s interests that it makes M3GAN seem like a bona fide contender. And lastly, we have yet another horror film that earned strong reviews, but doesn’t feel like it’s Oscar’s cup of tea: Enys Men.

Looking back at all of these films, I would hazard a guess that only Ant-Man and Shazam will be briefly talked up as Best Visual Effects contenders, but will ultimately earn nothing. The rest of these films don’t have much hope at all.

Peter J. Patrick’s Thoughts

In the past, films that were released early in the year vied for awards with films that were released throughout the year. In recent years, it has been almost impossible to find a film with Oscar potential released before the Cannes Film Festival in May. It has become exceedingly rare for films with such ambitions to be shown to the general public to be released without first going through major film festivals that stretch all the way through the New York Film Festival in early October. Only then are the most anticipated awards films available to the rest of us.

The 2022 Oscar winner, Everything Everywhere All at Once, which opened in April with slight buzz, was a fluke. Not only did it open prior to May, it was not considered a major Oscar contender until much later in the year as the more highly anticipated films, one by one, failed to live up to the expectations of the voters.

Like last year, there was no film released in the first three months of the year with any Oscar buzz and just one in April with slight buzz. More on that next month.

Thomas La Tourrette’s Thoughts

The beginning of the year usually does not have much by way of Oscar releases, but after the success of last March’s Everything Everywhere All at Once we have learned that that is not a hard and fast rule. However, nothing released so far this year looks to duplicate last year’s success.

Knock at the Cabin could stand an outside chance for an original screenplay not, but that seems pretty far-fetched. Since M. Night Shyamalan has not been nominated since 2000 in that category, he probably will not have any more luck this year.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania could conceivably pull off a visual effects nomination. Since the original did not do that, it would seem unlikely that the sequel would, but it will depend on how the other movies that are contenders play out. The reviews are definitely not going to help its case.

Creed III did open to fantastic reviews and the directorial debut of Michael B. Jordan might have been poised for some Oscar notice. I am not certain what categories it might have succeeded in, but with those types of reviews something might have been possible. But the arrest of co-star Jonathan Majors on domestic violence charges may have derailed that film’s chances of getting love from the Academy

Both 65 and Shazam! Fury of the Gods have an outside chance of nominations for visual effects, but after their releases they have faded quickly from any discussion there. The summer releases usually have a better chance at picking up nominations for visual effects and sound, but if they prove a weaker crop than usual, an early spring release might be able to sneak in.

The Lost King looks to be a minor film, but those can sometimes eke out nominations for screenplay or best actress. Steve Coogan has pulled off a writing nomination before and Sally Hawkins has two previous acting noms, though the early release hurts their chances. It was also nominated for a British Independent Film Award for 2022, so it may not even be eligible for the Oscars, though its release date for the US is not listed until 2023.

That looks to be it on films that could make a splash so far this year. As usual by the end of March there are few to consider, and April may not prove much better. But there are many more films coming out over the year that will easily fill out the categories.