As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

The last week has been a whirlwind of precursor organizations announcing. Matter of fact, other than the Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild and the Online Film & Television Association, all nominating groups have announced. From here, there’s only one critics group left to award their prizes out of London, plus all of the Guilds and other groups. With so much going on in one week, how does that mean our Oscar contenders fared? Some did quite well, some did poorly, while others did less-than-spectacular, but not objectively awful.

The British Academy (BAFTA) caused the most confusion with its refusal to nominate Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) for Best Director. They also nominated films like I, Daniel Blake and actors like Emily Blunt, none of whom have been particularly effective players this year. After that, things played out mostly normally through the Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), and several creative guilds.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 9

Sunday, Jan. 22 – Online Film & TV Association Nominations (Official)
Sunday, Jan. 22 – London Critics Awards (Official)

Big Winners

Lion had the most to gain out of these procedings, having released somewhat late in the process and not figuring prominently into the critics awards. However, with its appearance on the PGA list and a nomination for Best Director from the DGA, the film has become a fairly certain Best Picture nominee, as well as a contender in several other categories.
La La Land continued to chug along in its long push towards winning Best Picture, an award that seems more inevitable by the day. The film showed up at nearly every guild precursor, which should help push it towards Oscar glory.
Moonlight also had a strong showing in spite of its Best Director omission at BAFTA. The film has secured all the expected guild nominations that put it in contention for crucial categories at the Oscars.
Nocturnal Animals had the best week of the unexpected contenders. With the Best Director nomination at BAFTA, plus citation from several key guilds, with the exception of the DGA, the film has been performing admirably in its post-Golden Globes shock victory wake.

Big Losers

Silence seems to be Paramount’s latest albatross. After almost destroying the chances of The Wolf of Wall Street, and all but killing Selma‘s chances at the Oscars, they have dropped the ball once again and Martin Scorsese is the beneficiary of their failures. The film has managed to miss almost all of the guild nominations, including the crucial PGA and DGA lists. That won’t bode well for the film’s Oscar chances. They aren’t totally evaporated, but they are disappearing quickly.
Fences had a very bad week. Not only did it not earn a DGA nomination, though no one really expected it to, it received only one nomination from BAFTA for Viola Davis. Denzel Washington missing the Best Actor list is a bit surprising all things considered. While it did make the Art Directors Guild list, it wasn’t included at the Costume Designers Guild, which is a bit of a road bump, as is the omission by the American Cinema Editors.
Hacksaw Ridge had been showing promise in recent days, but without a nomination from the DGA or WGA, where some felt it could surge ahead, or the omission from groups like the American Society of Cinematographers or Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild, where it should have been a contender, the film has certainly taken a hit. That doesn’t mean it isn’t still a player, just that it’s been knocked down a peg or two.