As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

With the Screen Actors Guild announcing their nominations, this was a fairly momentous week. Several other groups also announced and while a number of prominent Oscar contenders had weaker weeks than previously, there aren’t a lot of genuine losers this time around.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 6

Tuesday, Dec. 18 – London Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 18 – Phoenix Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 18 – Phoenix Critics (Awards) (Official)
Thursday, Dec. 20 – Florida Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Dec. 22 – Nevada Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 23 – Chicago Independent Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 23 – Florida Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

BlacKkKlansman with its strong showing at the Screen Actors Guild and several other groups, Spike Lee’s film, which entered Oscar season weak, appears to be coming out of it strong with enough citations to be a major threat.
A Star Is Born continues to rack up accolades and was the most nominated film at the Screen Actors Guild, which suggests it will do extremely well with the Academy’s large branch.
Black Panther also continued to perform strongly during precursor season, picking up regular citations in several prominent categories, making its chances at a Best Picture nomination, a first for the superhero genre, a distinct and likely possibility.
Bohemian Rhapsody hasn’t done great during precursor season, though Rami Malek has. That said, it got a major boost with its cast nomination at the Screen Actors Guild. While the ensemble hasn’t been particularly well celebrated this season, it’s clear the populist SAG loves the film, which could make it a surprise Best Picture nominee with the Academy.
The Favourite has been the darling of precursor season even though it’s not the kind of costume drama that the Academy would normally be gung ho over, but the popularity of the film with critics and its three SAG nominations certainly show there’s appreciation for the film, which could bolster its chances with the Academy.

Big Losers

First Man may have had a satisfactory week, but blanking at SAG may have been a strong sign that the film isn’t going to do well with Oscar voters. It’s still earning a few more citations than it had in previous weeks, but much of that attention is for Claire Foy and the creative elements of the film.
Willem Dafoe desperately needed a SAG nomination to stay in the Oscar game, but he came up short. While he’s gotten a few nods throughout precursor season, there just doesn’t seem to be enough residual love for him as an actor to help him get over his film’s weaknesses and capture a nomination.
If Beale Street Could Talk is still getting some attention, but with its shut-out at SAG (not even Regina King was nominated), it suggests that the film is struggling a bit. Still, there’s plenty of love for the film and a fluke of the process (not enough members of the nominating committee having seen the film, or not caring for it as such a small body) that it might not mean a lot.