As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

A slew of precursors have been handed out this week and most of the major ones have been announced. We have a few big ones still to go (such as the Broadcast Film Critics Association, Kansas City Film Critics, and the Online Film Critics Society), but we’re also about to hit the guild nominations with Screen Actors Guild leading the way next week.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 5

Tue. 11 – Houston Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Tue. 11 – Phoenix Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Wed. 12 – Dallas Area Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Wed. 12 – African American Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Wed. 12 – Screen Actors (Nominations) (Official)
Wed. 12 – Goya Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thu. 13 – Las Vegas Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Fri. 14 – Austin Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Fri. 14 – Vancouver Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Sat. 15 – Phoenix Circle (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sat. 15 – Black Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sun. 16 – Boston Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sun. 16 – Kansas City Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sun. 16 – St. Louis Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 17 – Indiana Journalists (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 17 – Seattle Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 17 – Southeastern Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 17 – Utah Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Mon. 17 – Vancouver Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

Roma has won numerous prizes so far this year, which means it’s in a solid position for running the gamut to the Oscars. It might hit a few road bumps from here on out, such as with the Screen Actors Guild, but it should be relatively smooth sailing until the Oscar nominations come out.
Green Book had a solid week with plenty of attention hefted on its shoulders, including several Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and screenwriting citations. It hasn’t performed nearly as well as Roma, but it’s doing its level best.
If Beale Street Could Talk is Barry Jenkins’ second Oscar-contending film after his surprise win for Moonlight. This film seems to be snagging all of the nominations and awards it needs to to be a major player with Regina King taking an early lead in the race for Best Supporting Actress and a lot of strong support developing around the film’s score.
The Favourite has taken a back seat this last week to Roma, but has been no less potent in its recognition. Although Olivia Colman picked up a Supporting Actress award, she’s being pushed in lead and there’s every indication that she could get it, especially with support from the precursors. It’s also looking likely that Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone will pull out two of the Supporting Actress slots, a rare feat these days.
BlacKkKlansman has managed to stick around strongly as Oscar season progresses, nabbing Best Picture citations at regular intervals as well as earning recognition for its cinematography and production design. Spike Lee even picked up an award. Consensus could very easily build for him and a Best Directing award could be in his future if the precursor indications lead to BlacKkKlansman being a major Oscar player.

Big Losers

First Man is Damien Chazelle’s patriotic follow-up to Oscar winners La La Land and Whiplash and was thought to be a frontrunner to take home all the Oscars. After the past few weeks, especially this one, the film’s chances are now largely in the toilet. The Golden Globes ignored almost everything about the film (except Supporting Actress Claire Foy) and even Foy’s nomination hasn’t been well duplicated throughout the season so far. It’s possible the film still does well in the creative categories, but the upper tier is looking more and more out of reach.
Mary Queen of Scots was another film that looked tremendous on paper, a period drama starring two of the most prominent actresses working today. However, apart from the Satellite awards, Mary Queen of Scots hasn’t been getting any attention. While a few categories still remain within reach, it will need a huge box office return to change its trajectory at this point.
Widows was another film that was thought to be a major player this awards season thanks to its strong reviews. However, the film hasn’t managed to pick up many citations at all, though Elizabeth Debicki is doing surprisingly well. That said, the film’s weak box office may be hurting it most as Oscar voters may not check it out if they don’t think it’s prominent enough.
Boy Erased has secured several nominations this season, but it was once thought to be a much bigger potential player. Nicole Kidman is the film’s strongest competitor with her run at a Best Supporting Actress nomination, which could pair with a Best Actress nomination for Destroyer. Unfortunately, co-stars Lucas Hedges and Russell Crowe, though sporadically acknowledged, aren’t building much enthusiasm, especially this past week, which suggests its fortunes are weakening.
On the Basis of Sex was going to put Felicity Jones back in the Oscar crosshairs, but weak reviews and a lack of excitement about the film have stymied her and the film’s chances with nary a recognition in the last week.