As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

There aren’t many critics groups left and then we’ll be in the heart of the guild precursor season. This week will see a small number of critics groups handing out awards, though there are several still outstanding. The big announcements in the last week were the Golden Globe nominations and the Screen Actors Guild nominations.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 5

Tuesday, Dec. 20 – London Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 20 – Phoenix Critics Awards (Official)
Tuesday, Dec. 20 – Vancouver Critics Awards (Official)
Wednesday, Dec. 21 – Florida Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

La La Land continued to roll merrily along this season with several high profile nominations during this precursor season. While it didn’t pick up any new Best Picture awards, the love from the Golden Globes was a boon. Some are saying that SAG’s refusal to recognize the two-person cast of the film is a bad sign, but rational folk just call it a wise move.
Viggo Mortensen not only earned a Golden Globe nomination, but a Screen Actors Guild nomination for Best Actor. His film was also cited for Best Ensemble. That suggests he may have some traction with the Academy. An Oscar nomination is now within his reach.
Moonlight has been slowly outpacing La La Land in terms of awards won. With a current total of 7 Best Picture wins to La La Land‘s 5, it remains the most acclaimed film so far of the Oscar season. Barry Jenkins (director) and Mahershala Ali (supporting actor) also continue to earn praise. The Academy also made a decision that might mean the difference between the film earning a single Oscar and winnint two. They have ruled that the film should compete in Adapted Screenplay rather than Original where it was sure to lose to Manchester by the Sea. Now, it becomes the frontrunner in that category as well as Best Supporting Actor.
Manchester by the Sea hasn’t won any Best Picture prizes since it’s National Board of Review win, but with Moonlight competing in Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, Casey Afflek’s continued dominance of the Best Actor slate and an uptick in recognition for Supporting Actress Michelle Williams, the film has a fairly rosy outlook. The leading nominations at the Screen Actors Guild certainly bolster its chances.
Florence Foster Jenkins was considered too light and many thought it would ultimately be forgotten, but the Screen Actors Guild and Golden Globe nominations have each revived the film’s chances. Not only is Meryl Streep now in the hunt for a Best Actress nomination, but Hugh Grant is now considered a strong contender for a Best Supporting Actress nomination, his first ever. Grant has more of a shot that Streep does at this point based on existing competition, but the film could materialize in both categories as well as a couple of the creative categories.

Big Losers

Jackie has received strong reviews and has generally been talked about as a major Oscar player. However, as the precursors have continued, the film has gotten less support than expected. Natalie Portman was the film’s sole nominee as Best Actress. The Golden Globes also avoided the film (except Portman) in spite of the praise the score has received. At this point, the film will need a major lift from the guilds to avoid a disappointing fate. It does seem like Portman may be on her way to her second Oscar.
Hidden Figures may have gotten the Screen Actors Guild citation for Best Ensemble, but only Octavia Spencer earned a solo nomination. Further, the film didn’t earn much at all from Globes voters, the most likely to fall for its sentimental heft. The SAG success will help the film, but it still has an upward battle towards an Oscar nomination.
Elle had a remarkable run through the precursors nabbing citations left and right for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Actress. While Huppert seemed to be chugging along, she fell victim to the Screen Actors Guild’s foreign language bias, failing to earn a nomination there. She did get a Golden Globe nomination, which helps, but further embarrassment arrived when the film failed to make the 9-film shortlist for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. Will that hurt Huppert’s chances? No, but the places it could be recognized have been reduced to one and that’s not going to give Huppert as much support as she needs.
Hacksaw Ridge started out strong, including at the Oscars, but in spite of a huge, recognizable cast, the film ended up left off the Best Ensemble list at the Screen Actors Guild. That said, it can’t be seen as too much of a failure thanks to Mel Gibson’s nomination from the Globes, along with the film’s relatively broad support.