As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

What an interesting week it’s been. Films that were once dominant have faded while others that weren’t much in the conversation have emerged. While I don’t normally include late-breaking developments, today’s post includes my thoughts post-Globe nominations/Critics Choice awards. Note that this doesn’t mean there were many changes, just that I considered them before putting it down.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 4

Tuesday, Dec. 13 – Phoenix Film Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 13 – Detroit Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Dec. 13 – Houston Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Wednesday, Dec. 14 – Screen Actors Nominations (Official)
Wednesday, Dec. 14 – Austin Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Wednesday, Dec. 14 – Utah Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Dec. 15 – Kansas City Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Dec. 15 – Chicago Critics Awards (Official)
Friday, Dec. 16 – Las Vegas Critics Awards (Official)
Saturday, Dec. 17 – Nevada Film Critics Society Awards (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 18 – Kansas City Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Monday, Dec. 19 – Florida Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)

Outstanding Precursors

These are precursors that I had “unofficial” listed as the date and which did not hit the mark originally set, so we’re still waiting on their announcements. My guess is that they may announce a week after the listed dates.

Sunday, Dec. 4 – NY Online Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Dec. 8 – St. Louis Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Dec. 9 – Detroit Critics Nominations (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 11 – San Francisco Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Dec. 11 – Toronto Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

La La Land started off slow in precursor season, but in the last week, it’s support has exploded. With its staggering Critics Choice landslide and its hefty Golden Globe nomination count, it’s clear the film is still in play across the board and should end up the year’s most nominated film at the Oscars.
Moonlight has also been doing well with numerous precursor awards from Best Picture citations to mentions as Best Director and Best Supporting Actor. This is one of the year’s key players and should pull in a hefty number of nominations, but is it peaking early? The Golden Globes suggest it isn’t, giving it several nominations when they don’t typically recognize smaller films without popular cast members with this much strength.
The Red Turtle is only competing in Best Animated Feature, but with the slew of nominations it has received and the regular recognition from critics groups, it looks to be a solid fourth-slotter this year.
Lion didn’t get into the Director or Screenplay races at the Golden Globes, but make no mistake, it’s four nominations show it has some measure of strength and should appeal to a certain block of Academy members, a block that may have had its numbers reduced with the recent membership rules changes at the Academy.
Hacksaw Ridge wasn’t considered much of an Oscar competitor. Mel Gibson’s hard fall from grace was seen in many circles as the end. However, with critics and the Globes voters behind the film, it is clear that he’s in the hunt and a Best Picture nomination is not only within the realm of possibility, it’s very likely now. Even Gibson could be cited by the Directors Branch, which means several above the line nominations and almost assured below-the-line support. This one is here to stay.

Big Losers

Silence screened late, perhaps too late. With not a single nomination from the Golden Globe Awards, and none by the creative guilds left to give it hope (and maybe the Screen Actors Guild), Silence will either follow the Wolf of Wall Street path and score significant numbers of nominations or it will fade into obscurity. Its current treatment by the precursors suggests a struggle ahead.
Fences was considered a surefire acting nominee early in the year, but the stage-to-screen adaptation wasn’t thought to be a good fit for other categories. Then early buzz started that it was a terrific film and so its star rose. However, as the precursors have been announced, it hasn’t been much of a player. Viola Davis and Denzel Washington are assured nominations, but the film’s prospects in Picture and Director have pretty much faded. It will still get nominated in the Adapted Screenplay category, but I don’t see it having much of a shot elsewhere.
Hidden Figures had earned a comparison to The Help from 2011, but the failure to figure into more than one category with the Golden Globes pretty much kills its Oscar chances. While it’s still possible that either Octavia Spencer or Janelle Monae will earn Best Supporting Actress nominations and the film will be considered for Best Original Song, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design, its chances at the top category have weakened dramatically and can only be improved by an incredibly strong showing from the Screen Actors Guild on Wednesday.
Finding Dory is the sequel to a Best Animated Feature Oscar winner and was an incredibly popular film. Early in the process, it got several nominations, but recently, its prospects have dimmed. Failing to pick up the Golden Globe nomination did more damage to the film’s Oscar chances than anything. It’s always been the weakest of the three Disney/Pixar efforts in terms of Oscar potential, but this may have been the first and best sign yet that its hopes are fading fast. It’s now tentatively in fifth or sixth place in the race, a place it does not want to be with GKids around.