As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

It’s almost over. Other than the Costume Designers Guild tonight, there is only one precursor left (The Spirit Awards), one non-precursor left (the Razzies), and the Oscars themselves. All other precursors have been announced and we’ll so find out who the ultimate winners and losers are.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 14

Saturday, February 25 – Spirit Awards (Official)
Saturday, February 25 – Razzie Awards (Official)
Sunday, February 25 – The Oscars

Big Winners

Moonlight captured the Writers Guild of America prize for Best Original Screenplay. Why this matters is that it’s nominated for Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars. That it could top two prominent scripts, Manchester by the Sea and La La Land shows that it has some strength at the Oscars. It will do incredibly well at the Spirit Awards and will probably take home two Oscars, one of the few films that will earn multiple prizes that isn’t titled La La Land.
La La Land may not have won the Writers Guild award, but it managed three trophies this week, suggesting it’s still a well liked film that will probably capture a number of trophies. The win at the Cinema Audio Society is the most important as it’s directly points to a category at the Oscars where La La Land is currently a major player.
Hacksaw Ridge had a good day with the Motion Picture Sound Editors, winning two awards. The film, which had been chugging along weakly throughout precursor season succeeded in taking awards that might help it avoid walking home empty-handed this year.
Arrival may not have won much this Oscar season, but it did pick up the Adapted Screenplay prize at the WGA. Were Moonlight such a shoo-in for Best Adapted Screenplay, it might have picked up at least one award. While it still looks like it’s going home without anything from Oscar, the WGA prize is a nice consolation.
Suicide Squad was a box office hit, but the critics hated it. Many thought it wouldn’t even get a Makeup and Hairstyling nomination. Yet, here it is. One of only three films nominated. At the Make-Up Artists Guild awards this weekend, it picked up the character makeup award for period/fantasy, which gives it a prize heading into the Oscars. While it still won’t likely top Star Trek: Beyond for the award, if it had been shut out of the guild awards, it would have been no contest. At least it can now be considered a minor contender instead of an also-ran.

Big Losers

Manchester by the Sea has been struggling in recent weeks, losing high profile wins at various guilds and, most gallingly, at the Screen Actors Guild. The film may be one of those movies that starts out strong with critics, but fades as the Oscars approach like Sideways, Up in the Air, and The Descendants did. It’s still the frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay, but losing the Writers Guild Award may have done irreparable harm in terms of optics. It can still win, but its chances are weakened.
Kubo and the Two Strings was blazing a trail through the precursors winning several prizes along the way and managing the rare feat of earning a Best Visual Effects Oscar nomination. Yet, as the precursors have gone on, the film has been consistently underperforming, losing some of the prizes many expected it to win. This can be seen in its loss at the Motion Picture Sound Editors awards in the animation category as well as at the Cinema Audio Society awards losing out to Moana and Finding Dory respectively. That doesn’t make it seem like many people have a high opinion of the film.