As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

I missed yesterday’s due date, so I’m catching up with the Oscar Preview post today.

The Oscar nominations were finally announced. These were immediately followed by three guild awards, including two biggies. Here’s a look at the winners and losers of the Oscar nominations, American Cinema Editors (ACE) awards, Producers Guild of America (PGA) awards, and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 11

Saturday, Feb. 4 – Annie Awards Awards (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 4 – Cinematographers Awards (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 4 – Directors Guild Awards (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 5 – Online Film & TV Association Awards (Official)
Monday, Feb. 6 – Nominees Lunch Awards (Official)

Big Winners

La La Land scored fourteen Oscar nominations, then followed that up with wins at the ACE and PGA awards, making it the key Oscar player of the season. The question now is how many Oscars will it win?
Moonlight nabbed a second-place-tied eight nominations at the Oscars, a distinction shared with Arrival. That Arrival‘s dominance occurred in the tech categories and Moonlight earned five above-the-line citations shows the gay drama was incredibly well liked by Oscar voters. That Mahershala Ali picked up the SAG award means the film will likely not go home empty-handed with that and like Adapted Screenplay as consolation prizes.
Denzel Washington had never won at SAG, so his victory is monumental for him, but less so for the Oscar race. While Casey Affleck was thought to be the frontrunner, Washington’s win creates a small stumbling block for him. However, he isn’t nominated at BAFTA and he already has two Oscars. The challenge of picking up a third is huge considering Meryl Streep had numerous opportunities, but failed several times before getting her third. It’s still possible and the SAG win gives him visibility.
Hidden Figures hit its stride at just the right moment, securing a small, but important three Oscar nominations in writing, acting, and Best Picture. While it could have done better, it was given a solid boost at the SAG awards where it took home the prize for Best Cast, which is SAG’s version of a Best Picture prize. It’s not terribly instructive as they often go for larger and better known casts, but it, along with the impressive performance at the box office, should give the film a nice boost going into Oscars.
Manchester by the Sea didn’t have nearly as impressive showing at the Oscars as it should have, but six nominations is nothing to be disappointed about. It secured three acting citations, the most of this year and more than most years, and managed director, writing, and Best Picture nominations. It didn’t show up anywhere, though it wasn’t expected to be anywhere other than Film Editing, where it narrowly missed out, which might be a bad harbinger.
Emma Stone has been struggling all season with her potential as a Best Actress frontrunner, a position she ceded at one point to Natalie Portman and still fights for with Portman and Isabelle Huppert, both of whom have had much better showings with the precursors. However, she had the last laugh when she walked home with the SAG prize for Best Actress, which helps boost her going into the Oscars against the other two. BAFTA could still have something to say about it, but if they rubber stamp SAG, it will be all but over.
Mel Gibson has been forgiven by many Academy members for his Anti-Semitic remarks of the past. Taking up a slot in the Best Director race, Hacksaw Ridge also managed a total of six mentions, which is solid. Gibson wasn’t expected to make the final five, as the DGA had ignored him, but making it through was precisely what he needed to soothe his ego. It won’t mean anything when it comes to Oscar wins, though.

Big Losers

Nocturnal Animals was thought to be a late surging force in the Oscar race. With high profile nominations from several guilds and the Golden Globes, including a surprise Best Supporting Actor win. Many thought it was going to figure prominently in several Oscar races. Unfortunately, the film was more in line with the perceived late-breaking effort of Nightcrawler in 2014 than anything else, meriting a sole nomination for Michael Shannon, who wasn’t even the surprise Globe winner.
Hugh Grant may never be recognized by the Academy. A dominant force on film through the 1990s and 2000s, he faded significantly as his potential roles dried up. He earned a lot of positive attention for his performance in Florence Foster Jenkins and several precursors named him as a nominee. This led many of us to believe that he could finally get that recognition he has long deserved. The Academy’s acting branch had other intentions, ignoring him completely.
Arrival may have earned eight Oscar nominations, but compared to a number of other sci-fi Best Picture contenders of the last decade, its tally fell short. Losing out on an expected Best Visual Effects nomination, the film also took a hit by failing to earn star Amy Adams a Best Actress nomination even though she was often considered one of the major contenders. Those two glaring omissions suggest the film wasn’t nearly as strong as many thought it would be, and while eight is no shakes in terms of nomination tallies, especially with a Best Picture citation, the expectations did not end up matching reality.